NYT: Iran’s supreme leader orders retaliation against Israel for Haniyeh assassination

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has commanded a direct strike on Israel in response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, according to three informed Iranian officials.

This directive, which followed a significant security lapse, was issued during an emergency session of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on July 31 morning, The New York Times reports.

The officials, including two Revolutionary Guards members, spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.

Iran and Hamas have accused Israel of the assassination. Israel, embroiled in conflict with Hamas in Gaza, has not confirmed or denied involvement. Historically, Israel has executed targeted killings abroad, including those of Iranian nuclear scientists and military officials.

For nearly ten months of the Gaza conflict, Iran has sought to exert pressure on Israel through increased regional proxy attacks while avoiding full-scale war. In April, Iran launched its most significant attack in decades, firing hundreds of missiles and drones in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its Damascus embassy compound. Despite the advance warning, most of the weapons were intercepted, resulting in minimal damage.

The extent of Iran's response to Haniyeh’s assassination remains uncertain. Iranian military leaders are contemplating a combination of drone and missile strikes on military targets near Tel Aviv and Haifa, specifically avoiding civilian areas. A coordinated assault involving allied forces from Yemen, Syria, and Iraq is also under consideration.

Ayatollah Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over state matters and the armed forces, has directed the preparation of both offensive and defensive plans should the conflict escalate and provoke retaliation from Israel or the United States.

Publicly, Khamenei has vowed retribution, stating, “we see avenging his blood as our duty,” and condemning Israel to “severe punishment.” Other Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and representatives from the foreign ministry and the Revolutionary Guards, have echoed this sentiment, asserting Iran’s right to defend its sovereignty.

The assassination, occurring at a high-security Revolutionary Guards guesthouse during Pezeshkian’s inauguration, shocked Iranian officials. This incident, perceived as a severe security breach, has intensified calls within Iran for heightened protection of senior leaders. The killing has not only been seen as an attack on Haniyeh but also as a direct challenge to Iran’s security infrastructure, suggesting vulnerability at all levels.

Iranian analysts believe retaliation is essential to avenge Haniyeh’s death and to deter Israel from targeting other key figures like Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah or Quds Force commander Gen. Ismail Qaani. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group notes that Iran likely feels compelled to respond to maintain its credibility and deter further Israeli actions.