Political expert labels risking Russia's presence in Armenia as "gamble"

Armenian political scientist Hakob Badalyan has delved into the complex dynamics shaping Russia's interests in the South Caucasus and Armenia's strategic moves in the region.

Emphasizing the South Caucasus as a vital zone for Russia, the analyst, in an interview with Armenian media, warned that Russia could employ life-and-death logic, similar to its approach in Ukraine, to safeguard its interests.

"It should be noted that the South Caucasus is a zone of Russia's vital interests, and it is not excluded that it can act in this direction with the logic of life and death, as is the case with Ukraine. If we accuse Russia of having many players in the South Caucasus, it means that we may lose and the players will achieve their goals by creating instability in the region. Alongside, I will note that Azerbaijan has been pursuing a different policy and game with a deep strategic perspective for two or three decades,” Caliber.Az quotes him as saying.

Highlighting the risk of destabilization if Russia is accused of influencing multiple players in the South Caucasus, Badalyan said: "Of course, with its steps Yerevan is trying to create such a situation so that the West can take responsibility in terms of security in Armenia. However, the West will not take full responsibility, but will do everything to create problems for Russia and Iran in the region. And while it is important for Iran that no fire breaks out in the Caucasus, if it is to make a strategic change, it will have to make concessions to the West. Therefore, this change is not so desirable for Iran. It is difficult to say whether official Yerevan will be able to play a delicate game in the current situation.”

Regarding Yerevan's actions, the analyst suggested that Armenia aims to prompt the West to assume security responsibilities in the country.

“If the Armenian government has fully embarked on a policy of expelling Russia from here, it is a big gamble. And Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's statements in Antalya should be seen as a preventive and precautionary step. For Russia, even a small passive presence in Armenia is of vital importance, and to jeopardise it is a gamble,” he noted, adding that it's just that Russia is currently pursuing a policy of tactical retreat in the South Caucasus and is now de jure trying to take less responsibility.

Talking about Armenia’s current relations with CSTO, he said: “The CSTO is a playing card for the Armenian political elite in terms of building relations, which is used in the form of statements. And official Yerevan uses its statements on the CSTO for internal consumption, as well as for the West, as a political playing card. And visa liberalisation is the EU's pie for Armenia to agree to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.”

“As for domestic political changes in Armenia, if domestic political changes in Armenia are coordinated from some geopolitical centre, a change of power or leader is possible, but it will not be a palace coup. A palace coup is unlikely. If they decide to replace Pashinyan from outside, they will find a suitable person, even if Pashinyan tries to neutralise possible candidates. But I think there will be no such outside targets until the political situation in the South Caucasus becomes clearer.

In addition, Armenia's ruling authorities do not even have the potential for a palace coup. It is not excluded that someone else will be appointed instead of Nikol Pashinyan only at the instigation of external forces. Such an operation may be carried out from some geopolitical centre, but it will be just an external coup in Armenia," the political analyst said.