Reuters: US, Ukraine discuss ambitious March timeline for peace deal

U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators have discussed an ambitious target of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine as early as March, though officials involved in the talks privately acknowledge that the timeline is likely to slip due to deep disagreements over territorial issues, multiple sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters.

Under a framework currently under discussion, any potential peace deal would be put to a nationwide referendum in Ukraine, held simultaneously with national elections. Five sources said Ukrainian voters would be asked to approve the agreement at the ballot box, a process the United States believes should take place sooner rather than later.

The U.S. negotiating team, led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, has conveyed to Ukrainian counterparts during recent meetings in Abu Dhabi and Miami that Washington favours an early vote. Three sources said U.S. officials are conscious that Trump’s focus is expected to shift increasingly toward domestic priorities as the November congressional midterm elections approach, reducing the administration’s political bandwidth to push a peace deal through.

A second round of U.S.-brokered talks concluded on Thursday in Abu Dhabi, resulting in the release of 314 prisoners of war and an agreement to resume negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the next trilateral meeting involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia was likely to be held soon in the United States.

Two sources said US and Ukrainian officials had discussed the possibility of holding the referendum and national elections as early as May. However, several officials with direct knowledge of the process described the proposed timeline as unrealistic. Ukraine’s election authorities estimate that organising a nationwide vote under current conditions would take approximately six months.

“The Americans are in a hurry,” one source familiar with the talks said, adding that while the process could potentially be accelerated, it would still require significant time and preparation.

Holding elections would also require legislative changes, as voting is prohibited under Ukraine’s current martial law. The process would be costly and logistically complex. Ukrainian officials have also stressed the need for a comprehensive ceasefire throughout the campaign period to ensure the integrity of any referendum, citing Moscow’s record of violating previous ceasefire agreements.

“Kyiv’s position is that nothing can be agreed until the security guarantees for Ukraine from the United States and partners are in place,” one source said.

The composition of the negotiating teams highlights a sharp contrast in approaches. Ukraine has sent senior political figures to the talks, including Zelenskyy’s chief of staff and the head of his parliamentary faction. Russia, by contrast, has deployed a military-focused delegation led by the head of its GRU military intelligence agency, Admiral Igor Kostyukov.

Tensions surrounding the talks intensified after Kostyukov’s deputy, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, was shot in Moscow on Friday by an unknown assailant. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Ukraine of orchestrating the attack to undermine the peace process. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha denied any involvement.

One Ukrainian official said Zelenskyy is open to holding elections in the near future, an issue that has surfaced repeatedly since Trump took office in January 2025. Although Zelenskyy’s approval ratings have declined since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, they remain above 50%, and he is confident of securing re-election, the official said.

Despite diplomatic momentum, significant obstacles remain. Several sources identified the fate of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region as the most serious impediment to a near-term peace deal. Russia is demanding full control of the entire Donbas, even though Ukraine continues to hold more than 5,180 square kilometres of the territory. Kyiv has described Moscow’s demand as unacceptable, while indicating a willingness to explore alternative arrangements, including demilitarised zones or special economic frameworks.

“There’s still no progress on the territorial question,” one source said.

Another major sticking point is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which is located in Russian-occupied territory. According to one source, Moscow has rejected a U.S. proposal under which Washington would take control of the facility and distribute electricity to both Ukraine and Russia. The Kremlin insists on maintaining control of the plant, while offering Ukraine discounted power — a proposal Kyiv has rejected.

Even if negotiators were to bridge these divides, Ukrainian voters could still reject any territorial concessions submitted to a referendum. Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas seized prior to the 2022 invasion. Analysts estimate Russia has expanded its control by roughly 1.3% since early 2023.

While opinion polls show a clear majority of Ukrainians oppose giving up territory in exchange for Western security guarantees, that margin has narrowed somewhat over the past year, underscoring the political sensitivity of any eventual peace deal.

By Tamilla Hasanova