Tracing Iran's invested interest in Ethiopia

Ethiopia and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) earlier this month to enhance cooperation between their national police agencies. The agreement outlines joint efforts in combating cross-border crime, sharing intelligence, building capacity, and conducting mutual training and experience exchanges.

For Iran, this marks a significant diplomatic advance, bolstering its strategic foothold in the Horn of Africa. The agreement reflects Tehran’s broader efforts to expand political and economic influence on the continent through its military and security capabilities, as an article published by The Conversation argues. Iran has previously provided drones to Ethiopia during the Tigray conflict, contributing to Addis Ababa’s battlefield success in the separatist war that raged from 2020 to 2022.

Iran has also extended similar military support to Sudan, supplying drones to the national army in its conflict with the Rapid Support Forces in an ongoing civil war.

Why the agreement matters to Ethiopia

For Ethiopia, the new security pact is critical for two key reasons. First, it is expected to strengthen the government’s capacity to manage growing internal unrest, especially from ethnic militias and factions linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which still pose a threat despite the end of formal hostilities.

Second, the agreement comes shortly after a notable meeting in Addis Ababa between Ethiopian police chief Demelash Gebremichael and a delegation from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran’s regional rival. That meeting focused on cooperation in cross-border crime investigation and extradition.

Ethiopia’s willingness to engage diplomatically with both Iran and the UAE signals a pragmatic approach to foreign policy. As the country grapples with post-war instability, economic hardship, and renewed tensions with neighbouring Eritrea, it is seeking to diversify its alliances and attract external support wherever possible.

Iran’s strategic interests

Ethiopia has long served as a critical gateway for Iranian influence in East Africa. After a period of disengagement under former President Hassan Rouhani, who prioritized the nuclear deal with the United States, Iran has reasserted its presence in Africa. In 2016, many countries in the region severed ties with Tehran, largely due to diplomatic pressure from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These Gulf states were intent on curbing Iran’s influence in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa to weaken its support for Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Despite this pressure, Ethiopia did not break off relations with Iran, underscoring its strategic importance to Tehran. This alignment also draws on historical ties—during the reigns of Iran’s Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie, both nations enjoyed close relations rooted in shared pro-Western and anti-communist ideologies.

Relations were revived in earnest under former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–2013), who sought to strengthen African partnerships to mitigate international isolation and bypass U.S.-led sanctions.

Internally, Ethiopia faces mounting instability. The Tigray war severely strained its resources, and the country is now dealing with high inflation, unemployment, and the growing threat of ethnic militias. The new agreement with Iran offers the prospect of improving intelligence and security capacity at a critical time.

The cooperation may also be motivated by rising tensions with Eritrea. Though Ethiopia and Eritrea were allied during the Tigray conflict, their relationship has since soured. One major point of contention is the Pretoria peace agreement of 2022, which left Eritrean troops stationed inside Ethiopian territory. Another source of friction is Ethiopia’s ambition to secure a Red Sea port in Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia. Eritrea has sided with Somalia in opposing this move, escalating diplomatic tension.

A balancing act in regional politics

Ethiopia’s outreach to both Iran and the UAE illustrates a delicate balancing act in its foreign policy. The UAE remains one of Ethiopia’s top trade partners, along with Saudi Arabia. Yet Ethiopia continues to engage Tehran, despite longstanding Gulf pressure to sever ties.

This is not the first time Ethiopia has navigated relationships with rival Middle Eastern powers. In 2016, it stood alone in the Horn of Africa by maintaining relations with Iran, a decision made under then-Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn.

During the Tigray war, Ethiopia benefited from drone support from Iran, the UAE, and Turkey—countries that otherwise back opposing sides in regional conflicts. Ethiopia’s current strategy reflects a rare case of diplomatic convergence among rivals, as it leverages competing interests to shore up its internal security and geopolitical standing.

By Nazrin Sadigova