Trump's crucial moment: Bold move to prevent nuclear anarchy

An article by Foreign Affairs addresses the escalating risks of nuclear conflict in the context of a world slipping towards "nuclear anarchy." As Donald Trump prepares for his second term as US president, the piece argues that the existing nuclear order, especially the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), is increasingly under threat due to rising tensions among nuclear powers—particularly the United States, Russia, and China—and the growing risk of nuclear arms races.

The article proposes a bold and urgent initiative for Trump: leading a coordinated effort among the five nuclear weapons states (the US, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom) to avert nuclear catastrophe and prevent the collapse of nuclear arms control mechanisms.

The article highlights the intensifying nuclear arms race, with Russia and China expanding their arsenals, and the United States potentially increasing its own nuclear forces. The breakdown of key treaties, such as the New START treaty, exacerbates these tensions. If the treaty is not renewed by 2026, there will be no regulation over the nuclear competition between the US and Russia, leaving the global nuclear environment even more volatile.

The piece underscores that many global leaders no longer see nuclear weapons as a taboo, especially with the threat of their use in current conflicts like the war in Ukraine. The growing acceptance of nuclear weapons as a possible tool of war (especially from Russia’s threats) increases the chances of nuclear escalation, potentially for the first time in decades.

The authors propose that Trump initiate a six-month "cooling-off" period, where all five nuclear powers agree to exercise restraint in their nuclear activities. This includes suspending actions that could escalate nuclear tensions, such as nuclear weapons testing or new missile deployments. The goal is to de-escalate tensions and start a frank assessment of the nuclear dangers the world faces.

The cooling-off period would be accompanied by a joint assessment involving former senior officials from each country to review the nuclear risks and determine potential steps to strengthen the NPT and prevent further destabilization. This assessment would allow each country to voice its concerns while remaining officially neutral, facilitating candid discussions.

The article positions Trump as uniquely capable of taking the lead in such an initiative, citing his bold persona and pre-existing relationships with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It suggests that his second-term leadership presents a rare chance to reinvigorate nuclear cooperation and stabilize the global nuclear order.

However, the piece acknowledges potential challenges in getting Russia and China to participate, especially given the ongoing tensions over Ukraine and Taiwan. Yet, it emphasizes that Trump’s initiative would have the benefit of demonstrating US commitment to reducing nuclear risks and could generate broader international support.

Many nations are losing faith in the NPT’s ability to manage nuclear risks and curb proliferation, which could lead to further withdrawals from the treaty. This trend is exacerbated by rising nuclear ambitions in countries like Iran, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the possibility of nuclear arms development by US allies in Europe and Asia. This disillusionment with the NPT is portrayed as a direct consequence of the failure of major powers to uphold the treaty's objectives, such as disarmament and nonproliferation.

If the current trajectory continues, the world could see a dramatic reordering of nuclear relationships, resulting in heightened global instability and a fragmented nuclear regime that increases the likelihood of conflict and miscalculation.

The proposal’s success depends on delicate diplomacy, especially concerning sensitive issues like Ukraine, Taiwan, and broader geopolitical interests. Trump’s ability to decouple nuclear negotiations from these contentious topics could determine the initiative’s success or failure.

Ultimately, the piece frames the choice facing Trump as a binary one: either seize the opportunity to prevent a nuclear arms race and a breakdown of nuclear order, or allow the status quo to continue unraveling, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences. The authors argue that the clock is ticking, and urgent action is required to preserve global security.

The Foreign Affairs opinion piece calls for immediate, bold action to prevent the world from descending into nuclear anarchy. By suggesting a cooperative cooling-off period among the major nuclear powers and a comprehensive risk assessment, it offers a strategic path forward to stabilize the nuclear order.

Trump, as the incoming president, is presented as uniquely positioned to lead this initiative, leveraging his relationships with global leaders. However, the piece also emphasizes the inherent risks and uncertainties, particularly in the face of entrenched geopolitical tensions. The authors argue that this initiative is a crucial and time-sensitive opportunity to safeguard global security in the face of increasing nuclear dangers.

By Vafa Guliyeva