Ukraine shifts gears: Drone strikes, self-reliance replace hopes for tougher sanctions

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to seek further support from allies this week as he addresses the United Nations General Assembly and meets with U.S. President Donald Trump. But behind the scenes, Kyiv is preparing for a new phase of the war in which it expects to rely increasingly on its own resources, according to the latest report by Reuters.

Kyiv’s hopes of securing tough new U.S. sanctions on Russia have largely faded, and a more pragmatic approach has taken root. This has made Zelenskyy’s latest trip to the United States less fraught than his visit in February, when a heated White House exchange nearly derailed cooperation.

In the aftermath of that diplomatic clash, Ukraine issued an expression of regret, which, together with intensive European diplomacy, paved the way for the restoration of U.S. intelligence sharing and weapons deliveries authorised by Trump’s predecessor. However, despite weeks of lobbying, Zelenskyy has been unable to persuade Trump to impose sanctions that could significantly weaken Russia’s war economy. As a result, few in Ukraine believe peace is near.

Anton Grushetskyi, head of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, noted that only 18 per cent of Ukrainians think the war will end this year. “A feeling of uncertainty for the future is pervasive in Ukraine,” he said.

Russia, meanwhile, has secured diplomatic advances, including President Vladimir Putin’s red-carpet welcome at a summit with Trump in Alaska. In response, Ukraine has begun shifting tactics to prepare for a long struggle with less external backing. A Ukrainian think-tank that once focused on sanctions research now devotes its efforts to helping the military identify targets for drone strikes, according to a senior staff member. The source added that setbacks on sanctions and reduced U.S. aid could soon be compounded by declining support from some European allies.

Ukrainian long-range drone attacks have already hit Russian ports and refineries, prompting Moscow to warn of possible cuts in oil output.

Zelenskyy is expected to ask Trump on September 23 for new sanctions against Russia before addressing the UN General Assembly the following day. Kyiv is also promoting a summit focused on Crimea, a move intended to counter discussions about recognising the Russian occupation of the peninsula as permanent.

Putin has claimed that more than 700,000 Russian troops are deployed along the front line and that Moscow now occupies about 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory. The Kremlin insists on keeping that land — and potentially more — before considering any negotiations, a position unacceptable to most Ukrainians.

First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya stressed that Kyiv views its current diplomacy as pragmatic rather than make-or-break. “New York is the platform every September. It’s a super important place to be,” he told Reuters. “I wish it were more expedient, but you will never have easy solutions to the conflicts of this magnitude. So I think that we will not come back from New York, all of us, with easy solutions. And we will continue to work hard after New York.”

On the battlefield, Russian forces, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, have continued their slow advance in the east but have failed to capture the stronghold city of Pokrovsk despite months of attempts. Although U.S. assistance has diminished, it remains crucial to Ukraine’s ability to hold the line.

A senior European diplomat said both U.S. intelligence sharing and a new framework for Ukraine to purchase American weapons were vital. Zelenskyy confirmed that the first weapons secured under this system include Patriot air defence missiles and HIMARS rocket launchers, with Kyiv so far obtaining over $2 billion in financing for U.S.-made arms.

The diplomat said this improved access to weaponry has given Zelenskyy greater confidence, reflected in the less urgent tone of his recent public statements. Former Defence Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk argued that Ukraine’s long-term strategy must aim to prevent Russia from achieving battlefield success. “The strategy is to neutralise Russia,” he said. “That would lead to the ability to stabilise the situation and hopefully start a recovery, at least (to some extent), without Russia agreeing to stop the war.”

Still, doubts remain about Trump’s willingness to tighten sanctions on Moscow. A former senior Ukrainian official, speaking anonymously, said Kyiv should instead focus on building its military strength. He dismissed ongoing discussions about long-term security guarantees from Europe and the United States, likening the talks to “a ritual dance.”

“It would be very beautiful if people weren’t being killed,” he said.

By Tamilla Hasanova