US intelligence: Israel’s attacks slow Iran’s nuclear progress but only temporarily

US intelligence officials have revealed that while Israel’s recent airstrikes disrupted Iran’s nuclear programme, the setback is expected to be short-lived.

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have reignited global debate over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions — and revealed a rift between Israeli warnings and US intelligence assessments, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media. 

Last week, Israel launched a series of coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, coupled with dire warnings that Iran was nearing a point of no return in its alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons. Israeli officials insisted the military action was a preemptive necessity.

"At present, the Israeli-Iranian conflict continues to escalate, with civilian facilities damaged and civilian casualties increasing, making the security situation even more severe," Israeli officials warned in public statements. However, US intelligence agencies appear to disagree with Israel’s assessment. According to four individuals familiar with recent briefings, American analysts concluded that Iran is not currently engaged in building a nuclear weapon and could still be up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver such a device.

Despite several days of airstrikes, a US official said Israel may have only delayed Iran’s nuclear development by a matter of months. While the Natanz facility sustained significant damage, Iran’s second major enrichment site at Fordow — a heavily fortified underground complex — remains largely intact. Defense analysts note that Israel would be unable to effectively strike Fordow without specialized US weaponry and air support. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran has accumulated enough uranium enriched just below weapons-grade to potentially build nine nuclear bombs.

Still, experts emphasise that the primary challenge for Iran lies not in creating a basic nuclear weapon — which some suggest it could achieve within months if it chose to — but in developing a reliable delivery system, a process expected to take far longer. As both US intelligence officials and the IAEA assess the impact of the Israeli operation, there is rising concern that the strikes could provoke Iran to change course. Analysts warn that the assault might encourage Tehran to take a step it has so far avoided: the actual weaponisation of its nuclear programme.

By Naila Huseynova