Washington accords: Winners & losers in South Caucasus and beyond Article by Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies has published an article exploring geopolitical influence of the deals signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington. Caliber.Az reprints the article with minor modifications.

“In early August 2025, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace agreement [Joint declaration - ed.] under the aegis of the United States. The accord provides for the opening of the Zangezur Corridor that runs across southern Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan. More importantly, it gives the United States the right to manage and develop the corridor for 99 years.

The US entry into the region carries strategic implications for numerous parties—Armenia and Azerbaijan, of course, but also Iran, Türkiye, Russia and China.

The primary winners are Azerbaijan and Armenia, which can put the era of conflict behind them and begin a new era of peace and development.

Türkiye also comes out ahead. The opening of the corridor will clear the way for closer ties with Azerbaijan and the other Turkic states of Central Asia, while affirming Türkiye’s position as the Caucasus’ main gateway to the West, with all that means for global trade and energy supplies. 

The other major winner is the United States. With its mediation of the peace agreement, it is establishing a permanent presence in the South Caucasus. This will enable it to influence Iran, build closer relations with Central Asian states, and play a role in controlling a major East-West global axis.

Russia clearly loses out in the deal. Although the US presence in the Zangezur Corridor may not be military, at least initially, it gives the United States a toehold at the southern entrance to the Russian Federation. In addition, the agreement loosens Russia’s grip on the East-West trade route. 

Moreover, the peace agreement indicates that Armenia, its traditional ally, has decided to turn westward, perhaps because Russia did not intervene in the war with Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020. Although Armenia has not withdrawn from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation, it no longer seems to care about maintaining its special relationship with Russia or Russia’s geopolitical concerns in the South Caucasus, and recent behaviour by the Armenian government suggests it is prioritising the relationship with Türkiye over its relationship with Russia and Iran.

Iran loses, too, because the agreement puts the United States on its northern border. Yerevan has no doubt assured the Iranians that the US presence in the corridor will not be military in nature, but it is unclear whether this is enough to mollify Tehran.

China’s gains and losses are more difficult to assess; but because it maintains friendly relations with several Central Asian states, it enjoys a far better geostrategic position than any other major power. The opening of the Zangezur Corridor also offers a shorter bridge to the Middle Corridor, which Beijing has been working to incorporate into the Belt and Road Initiative.

The big question is whether the agreement truly marks the beginning of an era of peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus, or whether this is merely a brief phase, after which Russia will stage a return to the region. Many more details must be hammered out before the full implications of the peace agreement and Russia’s reaction become clear,” the article reads.