Washington assesses Cuban reaction as tensions with Havana escalate

The US intelligence community has been examining how Cuba might respond to potential American military action, CBS News reports.

The analysis comes as Pentagon and Defence Intelligence Agency planners began assessing possible Cuban responses while tracking the Russian-flagged, sanctioned oil tanker Universal, which was en route to Cuba. Officials said the work is part of broader contingency planning to develop military options for President Donald Trump.

These assessments are designed to evaluate not only the immediate consequences of any US action, but also the potential chain of subsequent reactions. U.S. military planners regularly use such intelligence forecasting when presenting options to the president.

When asked about possible escalation following the US indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, Trump said: “No, there won't be escalation. I don't think there needs to be.”

The intelligence assessment remains ongoing amid rising tensions between Washington and Havana. The Trump administration has expanded sanctions this year targeting Cuban military and intelligence officials, while also tightening restrictions on fuel and shipping flows.

CBS News also confirmed that Cuba has acquired attack drones, though it remains unclear how they were obtained. Axios previously reported that Havana possesses more than 300 military drones and has discussed potential plans to target the US military installation at Guantanamo Bay in the event of conflict. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has denied that Cuba poses any threat to the United States, warning that any US attack would trigger a “bloodbath.”

CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently traveled to Cuba, where he met intelligence officials and Raúl Guillermo “Raulito” Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former leader Raúl Castro. A CIA official said Ratcliffe described the Trump administration’s position as offering “a genuine opportunity for collaboration” and warned that it depended on Cuba severing ties with Russia, China, and Iran, adding that “the opportunity was contingent” and would not remain open indefinitely.

Separately, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated a US humanitarian offer of $100 million, to be delivered through faith-based organizations. A senior State Department official said U.S. envoy Michael Hammer had presented the proposal, which includes food, medical supplies, and solar lamps.

Rubio also released a Spanish-language video blaming Cuba’s leadership for shortages, while the US imposed new sanctions on GAESA, the military-run conglomerate controlling much of the economy.

The report also noted that Cuban-bound vessels have altered course amid fears of U.S. interception, even as some shipments of aid and oil have been allowed to proceed under exemptions.

By Vafa Guliyeva