"What will happen after checkpoint installation?!" Azerbaijani expert Farhad Mammadov's reasoning

On his Telegram channel, political scientist and head of the South Caucasus Research Centre Farhad Mammadov has commented on the opening of a border checkpoint installed on the border with Armenia at the beginning of the Lachin-Khankendi road.

"The installation of a checkpoint on the conditional border affects both the Azerbaijan-Armenia normalisation and the reintegration of Karabakh’s Armenian-speaking population.

Interstate track:

- The ambiguity in reading the points of the tripartite statement creates problems that cannot be solved. This was used by Russia, which acted as an arbitrator, each time interpreting the points of the statement in its own way. Now, it is not possible to make any manipulations along the Lachin road.

- Armenia's reduced subjectivity in the fate of Karabakh Armenians is physically reduced to zero. This allows [Armenian Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan to spread his hands and declare to his society that ‘he did everything he could’ and there is an opportunity to install a checkpoint on the border in the Zangazur [Zangezur] corridor.

- The Zangazur corridor is becoming the subject of active discussions. Russia will seek to use the checkpoint on the Lachin road to get Pashinyan to agree to the Zangazur corridor with Armenian checkpoints. The main thing for Russia is to get consent for an additional function of Russia in Armenia and leave the process within the trilateral framework.

- Because Russia is involved, the Zangazur corridor is not a priority for the US and EU. As a result, the West will demand that Pashinyan resist the corridor as much as possible while also signing a peace treaty and agreeing to unblock the corridor with Azerbaijan without Russia's participation!

- The USA, the EU and Russia will grapple in earnest in the process of putting pressure on Pashinyan. Iran will also be active. What we warned the Armenian leadership about is becoming a reality. As [MP] Rasim Musabayov said that Pashinyan himself will set up his checkpoint on the conditional border to control people from Karabakh, and the transportation of weapons. It will become more and more difficult to manage the situation in Armenia.

- The peace treaty process is getting a new impetus, as all the participants in the process received more than a clear message from Baku about the impossibility of somehow mentioning the topic of the Armenian-speaking population of Karabakh in the peace treaty.

Stimulation of reintegration:

- The main processes will begin among the Armenians of Karabakh. The split on further steps will only grow.

- The mousetrap has closed, and the remaining war criminals in Karabakh cannot give an answer to the population, so who is the guarantor of their security? By installing the checkpoint, the last hopes for the pro-Russian group collapsed. Fermentation can also lead to armed incidents, as well as to targeted provocations: They can shoot civilians and blame it on Azerbaijan. The military dictatorship will only get tougher.

- In the near future, we can expect the third invitation to Baku of representatives of Karabakh Armenians to discuss reintegration. By the way, they can come accompanied by the Russian peacekeeping command ... and it can be.

- After the establishment of the regulations for the checkpoint’s activities, the outflow of contract workers from Armenia will begin from Karabakh. This process can also be stimulated by actions to block the activity of bank transfers. Mechanisms should be considered. And the instinct of self-preservation has not been cancelled... for 11,000 deserters, it also worked during the 44-day war.

- Karabakh’s Armenian-speaking population recognizes that there are no other options... anyone who calls for a fight to the death should be told that this is the end. The options are limited: go to Armenia and become a shurtvats [cosmopolitan Armenian], remain a hostage of the military junta, or take Azerbaijani citizenship and live as part of Azerbaijan.

The installation of a checkpoint is also important in the regional context. The Armenian leadership is leading its country towards Syrization and Azerbaijan needs to isolate itself as much as possible from the potential conflict space. At this stage, any decisions of Pashinyan will lead to contradictions with the patrons of Armenia," Farhad Mammadov wrote.