What will happen to Iran's weapons pipeline in Syria? Steep repercussions for Hezbollah

The abrupt collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus has left officials and observers grappling with uncertainty about the future. While American and Middle Eastern policymakers are concerned with the potential for a power vacuum emerging, experts point to other critical issues that could reshape the region's balance of power for years, including the fate of Russian military bases in Syria and the potential disruption of Iran’s weapons pipeline to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Ali Bakir, a professor at Qatar University and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, laid out the significant implications for Syria's key allies, Russia and Iran for the Breaking Defense publication. “The fall of the Assad regime will have dire consequences for [their] regional influence,” he explained, adding that ordinary citizens in both countries may question the value of their governments' prolonged political, financial, and military support for Assad over the past 14 years.

Assad’s fall has particularly disrupted Iran’s logistical network that relied on Syria and Iraq as overland routes to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon. Rebel forces now control significant parts of this route, including Al-Boukamal, a vital border crossing between Syria and Iraq. Retired Lebanese General Wehbe Katicha highlighted that this effectively “cuts off supply lines from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

The Council on Foreign Relations noted in a recent study that Israel has targeted Iranian missile facilities in Damascus, facilities that previously strengthened Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets and missiles. This development poses an existential threat to Hezbollah, which now faces diminished capabilities. Bakir suggested that Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon itself is likely to decline over time.

For Iran, this scenario presents a dilemma. Tehran may need to adopt a more pragmatic approach to maintain its influence, attempt acts of sabotage to undermine adversaries, or bide its time to reestablish its regional strategy. Whether Iran will successfully navigate this new geopolitical reality remains uncertain.

With the loss of its ally in Syria, experts predict Iran may shift its attention more heavily toward Iraq, where it already supports Shi’a militias. These militias are expected to bolster their activities along the Iraq-Syria border to sustain supply lines and maintain connections to pro-Iran factions in Syria. However, Bakir argued that Assad's collapse could increase pressure on these militias to integrate into Iraqi state institutions, limiting their role as extensions of Iranian influence.

The fall of Assad has introduced a host of questions about the region’s future, and answers may take months or even years to emerge. What is clear, however, is that the power dynamics in the Middle East are undergoing profound and lasting changes. The implications for Iran, Hezbollah, and broader regional alliances signal a shift that will likely reverberate for decades to come.

By Nazrin Sadigova