What would recognition of Palestinian state change on the ground? Preparing for upcoming UN general assembly

Belgium has become the latest country to announce its intention to formally recognise Palestine as a state at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025, following the lead of Australia, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada.

Some view these developments as significant steps toward reviving the long-stalled two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict, especially given that France and the UK are permanent members of the UN Security Council. Others, however, have criticised the moves as “too little, too late.”

Defending its decision, the French government described the recognition as “a call to all the peoples and countries of the world. Add your contribution to the edifice of peace. Join in the irreversible momentum that we have started…”.

It is worth noting that the majority of the world—more than 145 states—has already recognized Palestine, including Azerbaijan, which extended recognition in 1992 along with neighbouring Georgia. Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry has repeatedly stated that it “supports the two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with East Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Palestine.”

The third South Caucasus nation, Armenia, also formally recognised Palestine in June 2024.

Currently, the Palestinian Authority represents the Palestinian people at the UN under the designation “State of Palestine,” but it is not a full member and has no voting rights in the General Assembly. Its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, welcomed the “historic” decisions by some G7 nations.

What defines a sovereign state?

Under international law, four criteria define statehood:

-        A permanent population

-        A defined territory

-        An effective government

-        The capacity to enter into international relations

These qualifications were outlined in the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States. However, this document acts as a declaration of principles rather than an enforceable treaty.

While recognition by other states is not a formal requirement for statehood, it is crucial for engaging in international relations. The Montevideo Convention clarifies that recognition means “it accepts the personality of the other with all the rights and duties determined by international law.”

Professor Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert at Chatham House, stated there is “no doubt” that a global majority supports Palestinian statehood. However, he added that recognition by a few G7 nations alone will not make it a reality:

“British recognition or French recognition doesn’t make [Palestine] internationally recognised. [...] You need the [UN] Security Council,” he has been cited by Australia’s ABC, noting that US veto power makes that outcome unlikely.

Despite supporting a two-state solution in principle, the US has consistently opposed Palestinian efforts for full UN membership, insisting the issue should be resolved through negotiations with Israel. For instance, last year the US blocked a Security Council resolution to grant Palestine full UN membership. The vote was 12 in favour, one opposed—the US—and two abstentions from Britain and Switzerland.

What would recognition change?

According to Julie Norman, an associate professor at University College London, the move carries significant “diplomatic and moral weight.” Britain, for example, could upgrade the existing “Palestinian mission” in London to a full embassy, while the UK might eventually open an embassy in the West Bank.

However, some critics argue that recognition does little to address immediate issues on the ground. “It’s a bit odd that the response to daily atrocities in Gaza … is to recognise a theoretical Palestinian state that may never actually come into being,” said Khaled Elgindy of Georgetown University. “It looks more like a way for these countries to appear to be doing something,” he added.

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio dismissed the recognition as “irrelevant,” calling the leaders of Canada, France, and the UK “clumsy” for offering concessions before Hamas released all hostages.

By Nazrin Sadigova