WSJ: Lack of commonly agreed EU-US strategy plays to Russia's advantage in war

The lack of a coordinated US-European strategy on Ukraine plays into Russia’s hands and is what allows it to maintain an advantage in the conflict.

This damning conclusion was put forward by an analysis of recent development conducted by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Caliber.Az reports.

The authors note that despite sanctions pressure, the Russian economy showed steady growth in 2023 and 2024. While the country does face certain economic challenges, there is no talk of a serious crisis.

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, stated that despite its deteriorating outlook, Russia’s economy is capable of sustaining the war effort for another 18 to 24 months before encountering serious difficulties.

According to Gabuev, a concerted Western push to strengthen sanctions and enforce them more effectively could shorten this period, as could a decline in oil prices. However, he noted that completely cutting off Russia’s oil revenues remains highly challenging.

Moscow continues to supply oil to China and India, and US secondary sanctions have failed to make New Delhi abandon Russian energy resources.

As for China, Washington and Europe have so far shown no willingness to impose tough measures on Beijing for its economic support of Russia, the journalists write, emphasizing that China is capable of “fighting back in any trade war.”

"Putin isn’t totally insensitive to economic fallout—such as inflation—that could cause widespread discontent," said Maria Snegovaya, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The proof, she says, is that Putin has tried hard "to insulate much of Russian society from the war, in both his economic and mobilization policies."

Another development unfolding at the same time is the increasing shortage of personnel faced by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Kyiv is trying to compensate for the lack of manpower with drone technologies; however, switching entirely to the use of UAVs in combat is, according to the article, impossible.

"In addition, rigid Soviet-style habits of Ukraine’s military command, which many soldiers say have caused unnecessary losses, have also eroded trust in the army leadership as well as citizens’ willingness to sign up," the article points out. According to their sources, many front-line officers and military analysts have urged the government to undertake an overhaul of how it gathers and manages its armed forces.

By Nazrin Sadigova