WSJ: Trump’s pressure on Iran exposes limits of its support from China, Russia

Iran has sought closer military ties with China and Russia, but as it faces its most serious U.S. threat in decades, its allies appear reluctant to provide direct support.

Small-scale joint naval exercises between Russia and Iran took place in the Gulf of Oman this past week, overshadowed by U.S. firepower in the region, Caliber.Az reports per The Wall Street Journal.

Iranian media reports that a larger exercise with China, Russia, and Iran is planned in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran has tried to rebuild its missile stockpile, air defences, and other military capabilities with Chinese and Russian help after losses in a 12-day conflict with Israel and the U.S. in June. Yet, neither ally seems willing to intervene directly if President Trump orders an attack.

“They’re not going to sacrifice their own interests for the Iranian regime,” said Danny Citrinowicz, former Israeli military intelligence official and now senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.

“They are hoping the regime will not be toppled, but they are definitely not going to counter the U.S. militarily.”

China risks damaging ties with Trump if it aligns too closely with Tehran, while Moscow prioritises avoiding alienating the U.S. over supporting Iran.

When Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei urged closer relations with Moscow and Beijing. “We should look East, not West,” he told academics in 2018. The Revolutionary Guard saw Russia as an arms supplier and China as a source of technology, but analysts say the benefits have fallen short.

“The Iranians complain about it. They wish that the Chinese and the Russians would do more, but they also have no choice other than sticking with them because they don’t have better alternatives,” said Ali Vaez, Iran expert at the International Crisis Group.

U.S. officials note that America’s presence allows for a sustained air campaign, rather than a single strike like the “Midnight Hammer” attacks on Iranian nuclear sites in June. Meanwhile, Russian and Chinese support remains limited; a Russian helicopter carrier left the recent exercise as planned.

Iran has watched regional allies weakened in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and Syria, and sees limited support from China and Russia as a warning. Trump is reportedly considering a limited strike to pressure Tehran on a nuclear deal.

“These relationships are highly pragmatic, highly transactional,” said Alexander Palmer, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They don’t have a sufficient strategic interest in Iran to be willing to go to war with the United States over the country.”

Iran is still demonstrating its capabilities, deploying Revolutionary Guard naval units to the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route. China has provided missile components and fuel chemicals, while Russia has supplied communications and satellite-jamming equipment.

“All of this is below the threshold that would tilt the military balance meaningfully in favor of Iran,” said Vaez. “Once the conflict starts, they’ve demonstrated that all they’re willing to do is send their thoughts and prayers.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev