AI race may move to orbit: Experts warn world can’t afford to wait

Space-based data centres may sound like science fiction, but experts say decisions made today could determine who controls the future of artificial intelligence, cloud computing and digital sovereignty — long before the first server ever leaves Earth.

The next frontier in the global artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing race may not be on Earth at all. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is acquiring his artificial intelligence company xAI, a move experts say is driven not just by revenue but by a longer-term ambition: sending data centres into space.

While Musk has suggested space data centres could appear within two to three years, specialists warn the reality is far more distant — and potentially geopolitically disruptive.

“When it comes to Elon Musk, I always think to add an invisible zero after any of his predictions,” Jermaine Gutierrez, a research fellow at the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI), told Euronews. 

An ESPI report estimates that a competitive space-based data centre in terms of power is “at least 20 years away”.

Data centres are energy-hungry facilities that house vast computing systems and data, requiring constant cooling and enormous physical space. In theory, orbit offers advantages: abundant solar energy, fewer land constraints and enhanced security.

“There is more security in space as data is not transferred up to space and back to Earth,” said Javier Izquierdo, chief strategy officer at satellite operator Hispasat.

But the technical challenges remain formidable. Although space is cold, cooling hardware in orbit is harder than on Earth.

“There is no fluid to dissipate heat,” Gutierrez said. “You're stuck with radiators, and you're basically facing the Stefan-Boltzmann law.”

The result would be massive thermal management systems that could outweigh the computing hardware itself.

Launch economics are another major barrier. SpaceX’s Starship would need to achieve full reusability and frequent launches to cut costs to near fuel prices. Yet Starship has not reached orbit.

“Anybody who's looking into space data centres is looking at Starship,” Gutierrez said, noting that the business case hinges on its success.

Maintenance is equally problematic. Space components typically last about five years due to radiation damage, and repairing orbital infrastructure would require advanced robotic capabilities that do not yet exist — though this could be an area Tesla may eventually address.

Despite the long timeline, experts warn against complacency. Gutierrez argues that whoever builds the infrastructure first could dominate AI. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has said AI computing costs will eventually approach the cost of energy itself. In orbit, solar power is constant and free.

“If we let all of this infrastructure for space-based solar power to be dominated by the Americans, perhaps that's the risk,” Gutierrez said.

Others caution the issue goes beyond nationality.

“The real risk isn’t some sci-fi runaway superintelligence but rather who ends up holding the keys,” said Himanshu Tyagi, co-founder of open source AI company Sentient.

He warned of power concentrating across “compute, deployment, distribution, capital, and governance”, adding: “When the same small group controls multiple choke points… you get something closer to an oligarchy that’s hard to regulate, compete with, or even meaningfully audit.”

China is already experimenting, having deployed its Three Body constellation with satellites capable of edge computing and AI workloads.

Europe, however, risks falling behind. Despite interest, it has no concrete plan and already relies heavily on US cloud providers. Under the US Cloud Act, American firms can be compelled to shut off services abroad.

“Europe needs to take its future for its own data seriously and work on its own capabilities,” Izquierdo said, stressing cybersecurity benefits as “it is harder to hack in space”.

European firms like Thales are researching the technology, but without coordination.

“Thales has their team working on it, but they're not getting any customers, any partners, because there's no larger European coordination,” Gutierrez said.

By Sabina Mammadli