Azerbaijani think tank corrects Dutch institute on Karabakh, transit claims

The Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) has issued a detailed clarification in response to the recent Clingendael policy brief, “Armenia and Azerbaijan: Peace or Pause?”

The AIR Center highlighted factual inaccuracies, legal misinterpretations, and analytical omissions in the brief, emphasizing the importance of precision and evidence-based scholarship in shaping international perceptions and promoting sustainable peace in the South Caucasus, Caliber.Az reports via local media.

"We at the Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) value the longstanding role of international research institutions in fostering informed analysis and constructive dialogue on South Caucasus affairs. It is in this spirit of professional engagement that we reviewed Clingendael's recent policy brief ‘Armenia and Azerbaijan: Peace or Pause?" published in September 2025. After careful examination, we concluded that several formulations and assessments presented in the brief contain factual inaccuracies, legal misinterpretations, and analytically consequential omissions that risk creating misunderstandings about the dynamics of Azerbaijani–Armenian relations.

Our decision to provide a detailed response is therefore not driven by disagreement for its own sake, but by our institutional responsibility to uphold clarity, accuracy, and adherence to international legal standards in discussions of sensitive interstate matters. Certain characterizations in the paper – such as the use of terms implying an unlawful ‘takeover,' the suggestion of 'Azerbaijani occupation' of Armenian territory, the depiction of Azerbaijan's transit proposals as 'extraterritorial,' and the description of population movements in the Karabakh region using legally unsubstantiated labels – required correction to prevent the reinforcement of misleading narratives. Likewise, the brief's interpretations of the negotiations, the status of the OSCE Minsk Group, Armenia's constitutional cross-references, the legal basis of mutual interstate claims, and the implications of the TRIPP connectivity arrangements do not fully align with established records or the documented positions of the parties.

Because think tanks and policy research institutions play a vital role in shaping international perceptions and informing diplomatic decision-making, precision in terminology and contextual accuracy are essential. When policy analysis departs, even unintentionally, from verified facts or the legal frameworks governing inter-state relations, it may undermine the conditions necessary for lasting peace, generate confusion among stakeholders, or inadvertently contribute to misinterpretations that can hinder ongoing processes.

For these reasons, and out of respect for the importance of rigorous, evidence-based scholarship, we prepared the enclosed clarification document. Our aim is to contribute constructively to the international policy conversation by providing grounded, verifiable information and by ensuring that ongoing debates reflect the reality of the relations, the positions of the parties, and the legal and historical context in which they operate.

We remain committed to open professional dialogue with Clingendael and all research institutions and believe that joint efforts rooted in accuracy and mutual respect are essential to supporting sustainable peace and regional stability,” the statement by the Centre reads.

To recap, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael is think tank and academy for international affairs. Clingendael analyses the most important trends and issues in international environments and policy, evaluates international policy, studies opinions concerning international policy, develops new ideas and approaches to clarifying international developments, and provides recommendations on how to approach critical international issues.

By Vafa Guliyeva