China’s baby bust reaches 18th-century levels

China has saw a sharp decline in births in 2025, underscoring the scale of the country’s demographic downturn and raising fresh questions about its long-term economic and geopolitical trajectory.

Official figures show that births fell to 7.92 million in 2025, down from 9.54 million a year earlier and barely more than half of the 14.33 million births once projected after the repeal of the one-child policy in 2016. The figure is comparable to birth levels last seen in 1738, when China’s total population was estimated at about 150 million, National Review says. 

The data marks one of the starkest acknowledgments yet by Chinese authorities of the depth of the country’s demographic crisis. Last year, the government rolled out a new set of pro-natalist measures, including financial incentives and expanded family support, in the hope of reversing the decline. Demographers, however, warn that any rebound is likely to be slow and limited.

China’s fertility rate has been falling for decades, driven by urbanization, rising education levels, high housing and childcare costs, and changing social norms. A sustained drop in marriages has further constrained birth rates, a trend that analysts say will be difficult to reverse.

A key structural factor is the shrinking pool of women of childbearing age. Women aged 20 to 34 — a group that accounts for roughly 85% of all births in China — are projected to decline from about 105 million in 2025 to 58 million by 2050. This demographic contraction is compounded by a pronounced gender imbalance. Decades of sex-selective abortion have resulted in a shortage of women, while women’s higher educational attainment has contributed to what is often described domestically as a “leftover women” phenomenon, as female university students now outnumber their male counterparts.

The implications extend well beyond China’s borders. Economists and policymakers are increasingly questioning whether global manufacturing and industrial production can continue to concentrate in a country whose population is shrinking so rapidly. Others point to the broader impact on global growth, as China — long a major driver of economic expansion — increasingly acts as a demographic drag rather than a boost.

The demographic shift is also feeding into strategic debates about China’s future. With its working-age population declining and the population aging rapidly, analysts say Beijing may be reassessing the timeframe in which it can consolidate its economic and geopolitical ambitions.

For now, the latest birth figures suggest that even with stronger policy support, China’s demographic headwinds are likely to shape both its domestic outlook and its role in the global economy for decades to come.

By Sabina Mammadli