Contexts of terrorist attack in Moscow Pundit offers insights

Farhad Mamedov, a political scientist and head of the Center for South Caucasus Studies, commented on the terrorist attack that took place in Crocus City Hall on his Telegram channel.

"Many versions are being built around the terrorist attack in Moscow. The official version: the perpetrators - a radical religious group - carried out a terrorist attack in exchange for a financial reward from an unknown customer and tried to go to Ukraine, but the group was arrested on the approaches to the border with Belarus.

The main question is: where will the Russian leadership direct its arrows? To be more precise: how it will be used in the war in Ukraine?! The first step in this direction has been made: Ukraine was mentioned in the speech of the Russian president.

For today, the contexts of the tragic event are interesting.

Global context

- "Sympathy of co-religionists". Mentioning ISIS, radical religious groups, evokes sympathy in the West, recreating images of a joint fight against "Islamic terrorism" in Syria, playing on conservative groups in the U.S. and Europe. This is Russia's traditional flock in the West, and the message is very simple: "Russia and the West may have problems, conflicts and even wars, but we all have one enemy...". There are Trumpists, Le Pen, groups in Germany .... and a lot of white conservatives for whom the most important filter is skin colour and religious identity. The main goal is to gain support for the idea of a "white flag" Ukraine, to show that there are threats more global than the occupation of several regions of Ukraine. And the war must be ended now on any terms.

War in Ukraine

- The mentioning of Ukraine and promotion of the "Ukrainian direction" of the terrorist attack should further mobilize Russian society, the idea of revenge should reach the absolute. With the idea of revenge being promoted, it will be easier to mobilize before the beginning of summer - the period when military actions on the front become the most dynamic.

- A large-scale and brutal Hamas terrorist attack with huge visual content has been giving carte blanche to Israel for 8 months now to conduct a large-scale operation in Gaza and, despite tens of thousands of civilian deaths and the destruction of all residential infrastructure, to receive support from the West. Revenge for the terrorist attack in Moscow on Ukraine is from this series...

The regional context of the South Caucasus

- Russia is seeking to stop the war in Ukraine on its own terms in order to start rebuilding. The terrorist attack in Moscow will further exacerbate Moscow's response to various anti-Russian actions. Especially on the territory of its allies' countries.

- Armenia is preparing for April 5 ... After the terrorist attack, Moscow's reaction to Iran's moves will be completely different, more emotional.

How long will the effect of the Moscow terrorist attack last?! Here everything will depend on the course of military operations. It is clear that for at least a month the topic will be exploited to the maximum. Images of shootings, funerals of the dead, life stories of the victims - the whole emotional arsenal will be released within a month. The main thing is not to get caught in the act during this time. And then we will see how the processes will go on, the EAEU jubilee summit on May 8 and the parade on Red Square on May 9," Mammadov writes.