COP29: Reaching consensus on climate not easy, but possible Article by a US analyst on Geopolitical Monitor

Canadian publication Geopolitical Monitor has published an article dedicated to the UN Climate Conference (UN COP29) taking place in Baku. Caliber.Az reprints this article.

John Podesta, Senior Advisor to the President for International Climate Policy, will lead the US delegation to Azerbaijan to attend the upcoming COP29 climate conference which commenced on 11 November.

Other senior officials that will travel to Baku include Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack, Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, Assistant to the President and White House National Climate Advisor Ali Zaidi, Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality Brenda Mallory and Acting Deputy Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency Jane Nishida.

As for the host of the event, on 19 October, the COP29 presidency published the final texts of nine declarations and pledges for the upcoming summit. They include a COP29 Truce Appeal, a COP29 Declaration on Green Digital Action, a COP29 Declaration on Water for Climate Action, and a COP29 Green Energy Zones and Corridors Pledge.

Azerbaijan has noted that the Truce Appeal has “already gained significant traction,” with support from 127 countries and almost 1,100 non-state actors. The Truce calls for a “pause in conflicts during the COP29 period to reduce emissions from military activities and promote global peace.” Given the ongoing Ukraine war, the crisis in the Middle East, the Myanmar civil war, and the civil war in Yemen, among other hotspots, warfare continues to be a significant contributor to global pollution.

There are other issues that Baku has stated it wants to address at the global summit, particularly in terms of securing climate financing under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The COP29 presidency has appointed Ministerial Pairs for Adaptation, Mitigation, and Article 6 – essentially, two ministers from different countries will lead consultations on each of these issues.

A word about Article 6 is necessary, as it describes “how countries can pursue voluntary cooperation to reach their climate targets. It enables international cooperation to tackle climate change and unlock financial support for developing countries”  At a climate meeting in Bonn, the COP presidency explained, “we got off to a positive start with the swift adoption of the agenda; there was clear momentum and will to advance work on Article 6,” adding, “we heard strong calls that at COP29 we need to collectively make progress across all pillars of the Paris Agreement with climate finance as a centerpiece.”

One confirmed side-meeting for Baku is the first Energy Transition Investment Forum for Central Asia at the summit, organized by the International Renewable Energy Agency, COP29 Presidency, and Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan.

Moreover, during a mid-October special meeting organized by Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Shahin Shahyarov, Senior Negotiator of COP29, noted the need to address the environmental impact of organized crime.

President Ilham Aliyev also participated in meetings to prepare for the summit, including gatherings with the governor-general of Tuvalu, the prime minister of the Kingdom of Tonga, and the minister of foreign affairs of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas. The Small Island Developing States have unique challenges regarding climate change, as climate change-exacerbated hurricanes are very destructive across the Caribbean. At the same time, rising sea levels are an existential threat to all small island nations.

Green transition is an ongoing process in Azerbaijan. During the Caspian Energy Forum in September, Deputy Energy Minister Orkhan Zeynalov announced plans to commission 7 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. A “capacity of 2 GW will be built to supply the domestic market, 4 GW for exports along the Black Sea green energy corridor from Azerbaijan and Georgia to Europe, and 1 GW for export along the corridor through the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic to Turkey and Europe,” the official explained.

Azerbaijan is already a major supplier of energy to Europe, but in the future, the energy flowing from the Caucasus Europe could be greener. A joint venture has been established to install an underwater cable link between Azerbaijan, Georgia, Hungary, and Romania for renewable electricity. Moreover, Baku aims to assist Central Asian countries in exporting green energy to Europe. Kazakhstan, for example, is turning to solar and wind power plants for domestic energy production, which could be exported to Europe via Baku in the future. Baku, Astana, and Tashkent are also discussing green energy plans as well.

Natural disasters exacerbated by climate change continue to affect the entire planet: hurricanes hitting Florida in the United States, wildfires across South America, a massive heat wave that claimed hundreds of lives in India and Pakistan this past summer, and a prolonged drought in Morocco are some of the most recent environment-related tragedies. The hope is that COP29 will succeed by implementing practical policies and initiatives with short and long-term objectives.

Having COP29 occur in Azerbaijan will also help bring global attention to environmental challenges across the Caucasus and Central Asia. Current challenges include the future of the Caspian Sea. Unfortunately, much like the Aral Sea (shared by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan), the waters of the Caspian (shared by Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan) are shrinking. Other regional challenges include air pollution, climate change-exacerbated droughts, and the pollution caused by Turkmenistan’s Darvaza Gas Crater). Moreover, Iran has several unaddressed crises related to air pollution and the loss of Lake Urmiya. Finally, the Aras River is one of the region’s silent tragedies, due to pollutants from a copper mine in Iran and Armenia’s Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant.

COP29 will play out during tensions between the global powers and armed conflicts in several regions. To make the situation worse, disinformation and misinformation campaigns have increased skepticism about environmental issues and the effects of climate change. Hence, achieving a consensus on several critical issues, including climate financing, green energy diversification, and pledges to reduce pollution and improve environmental protection legislation, will be challenging – but not impossible.

The author of this piece is Wilder Alejandro Sánchez, who is President of Second Floor Strategies, a consulting firm in Washington, D.C. He is also an analyst who monitors defence, geopolitical, environmental and trade issues across the Western Hemisphere, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.