Coup in Yerevan or new Armenian-Azerbaijani war? The perils of Pashinyan's demarche

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made a number of anti-Russian statements. He said that Russia is leaving the South Caucasus and is not fulfilling its obligations to protect Armenia, and therefore Yerevan is looking for other military allies. Moreover, Armenia recalled the permanent and plenipotentiary representative of the republic in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) on September 5. Moscow answered irritably that Russia would not leave the South Caucasus. Afterward, a new situation was observed in the region.

The issue is that the Armenian leadership has taken a number of other steps, which show that its foreign policy is sharply directed towards the West. So, it sent the Rome Statute to the National Assembly, where the MPs will discuss the ratification of this document. The Rome Statute is an international treaty that established the International Criminal Court. Such a discussion in the Armenian parliament is a direct challenge to the Russian president. Moreover, the US-Armenian military exercises were announced, while Anna Hakobyan (Pashinyan’s wife) traveled to Kyiv and began rendering humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

However, there is a main question. What kind of external protection will Armenia get if it loses Russia's support? Indeed, its position becomes extremely precarious without external protection.

We would single out the last point here as the most significant one. Pashinyan urges the West to help, but the West can just express deep concern. Garabagh is an internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan. Armenia itself recognised this. Theoretically, the US Department of State can threaten with sanctions, but this is doubtful as Azerbaijan also supplies oil and gas to Europe. Moreover, as Türkiye's closest ally, Azerbaijan, along with Türkiye, may have some immunity from US sanctions. It is important for the West to maintain a partnership with influential Türkiye and its close allies.

Even if Russian troops leave Garabagh and the territory of Armenia and instead of them the French Armed Forces appear in Yerevan (which is very doubtful), they still will not fight with Azerbaijan.

Thus, Pashinyan found himself between two fires. On the one hand, Azerbaijan which is full of determination to establish a constitutional order throughout the entire territory of Garabagh. Without a doubt, Armenia will not hold Garabagh in case of a counter-terrorist operation.

Without a doubt, cool relations between Moscow and Yerevan suit Azerbaijan, as it was during the 44-day second Garabagh war. That period, Russia was dissatisfied with the velvet (colour) revolution in Armenia and the removal of Serzh Sargsyan's group which was close to Moscow from power. The Kremlin views such events in the former Soviet Union as a threat to its security. Today, Moscow is dissatisfied that Armenia obviously chooses the West. The lower the motivation of Russia to support Armenia, the less chances Yerevan has to resist the Azerbaijani army.

On the other hand, the radical wing of the separatists is being strengthened in Garabagh after Arayik Harutyunyan (so-called president of “Nagorno-Garabagh”) left. Some observers associate Harutyunyan's "resignation" with the weakening of Pashinyan's influence in Garabagh and with the strengthening of the most radical elements of the Garabagh clan. The Kocharyan-Sargsyan group, having relations with the separatists, overthrown by the Velvet Revolution, is trying to intensify in Armenia. Supporters of revenge - the Garabagh clan are capable of everything.

Finally, the Kremlin does not forgive a betrayal. It really doesn't like being scammed, and supports the Kocharyan-Sargsyan group, which was always obvious.

As a result, two events are likely to occur in connection with Pashinyan's demarche. The first is the counter-terrorist operation of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in Garabagh and a new war with Armenia. The second is a coup within Armenia and the Garabagh clan’s attempts to return to power, which is slightly supported within the country.

We are not stating that Pashinyan will be overthrown, or that the Azerbaijani army will launch an operation in the coming days. However, the likelihood of all these events after Pashinyan's demarche has grown and he does not have a new security system that can protect him in case of a break with Moscow.