Foreign Policy: US doubles arms sales to NATO countries in Europe amid Russia's aggression

The United States nearly doubled the number and price tag of approved arms sales to NATO allies in 2022 compared with 2021.

The move comes as alliance members scramble to stock up on high-end weapons in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Robbie Gramer writes in his article for Foreign Policy.

In 2021, the US government approved 14 possible major arms sales to NATO allies worth around $15.5 billion. In 2022, that jumped up to 24 possible major arms sales worth around $28 billion, including $1.24 billion worth of arms sales to expected future NATO member Finland, according to a Foreign Policy analysis of two years of data from the US Defence Department’s Defence Security Cooperation Agency.

While not all arms sales will be finalized with the same numbers outlined in the proposals, the sharp uptick in these plans reflects a massive shift in Europe’s security landscape after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February. After some European countries allowed their defense capabilities to atrophy for decades, Russia’s invasion jolted Europe into a scramble to rapidly boost military spending.

“Everyone is trying to lock down arms sales deals as quickly as possible,” said one Eastern European defense official, who spoke to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity. “Russia’s invasion has brought a cold new reality to Europe.”

Some of the approved US arms sales in 2022 were years in the making, such as Germany’s plan to purchase F-35 fighter jets in a deal worth around $8.4 billion. But many other major arms sales were rushed after the war broke out in Ukraine, as European countries on NATO’s eastern flank dashed to bulk up their own military capabilities in an effort to backfill the equipment they shipped to Ukraine and deter Moscow from any military incursions on alliance territory.

In early December, for example, the State Department cleared a possible sale of 116 M1 Abrams battle tanks to Poland, after an initial proposed plan to sell Poland 250 of such battle tanks was announced in April. The three Baltic countries on NATO’s vulnerable eastern flank—Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia—all pursued plans to procure the types of US long-range rocket and missile systems that helped Ukraine turn the tide of the war against Russia in recent months. The State Department approved a plan to sell up to six HIMARS rocket launchers to Estonia in July under its foreign military sales program, in a deal worth around $500 million. It approved a similar sale to Lithuania in November. A US deal to sell HIMARS to Latvia is expected to be announced in early 2023, according to several US and European officials familiar with the matter.

The data showcases how the United States remains a major arms supplier for allies in Europe in the short term, even as Europe’s own defense industries scramble to meet wartime demands for conventional arms and ammunition. The flurry of new defense sales comes amid growing concerns in the West that NATO countries are running out of excess military equipment and munitions to send to Ukraine to aid its fight against the Russian invasion. Defence officials and experts say Europe’s defense industrial base is struggling to rapidly expand its capacities to keep pace with the new demand.

“Europeans are getting extremely worried about not having enough of their own military equipment after sending so much to Ukraine,” said Rachel Rizzo, a scholar at the Atlantic Council. “The United States certainly plays a role in helping here, which is evidenced by the increase in arms sales in 2022 compared to 2021. However, it also highlights that Europe needs to get its act together in the security and defense realm.”

At this phase in the war, Ukraine is firing some 4,000 to 7,000 rounds of artillery a day, rapidly using up munitions delivered by the West shortly after they arrive. The United States has sent some 806,000 155 mm artillery rounds to Ukraine since Russia began its invasion. By comparison, the United Kingdom, which has one of Europe’s strongest militaries, has sent around 16,000 rounds to Ukraine as it grapples with its own supply shortages. In November, the British government notified one of the country’s top defense industry firms to expand its production of artillery shells.

On the other side of the conflict, however, Russia’s battered forces are also running low on ammunition after a series of stinging battlefield defeats that pushed them farther back into eastern Ukraine before winter set in. Moscow has sought to backfill its own dwindling munitions supplies through deals with Iran and North Korea. It has also taken some 20,000 tons of ammunition from neighboring Belarus, Lithuania’s defense minister, Arvydas Anusauskas, told Defense News in an interview this week. Under President Aleksandr Lukashenko, Belarus has served as an accomplice and logistical staging ground for Russia’s invasion.