France and Germany's political crises: Warning for Europe's future

Responsible Statecraft has published an article offering a critical analysis of the growing political and economic crises faced by France and Germany, two central powers in the European Union.

The author underscores how these crises are exacerbated by fiscal deficits, the economic stagnation in both countries, and the mounting pressure of supporting Ukraine while maintaining social welfare programs.

The analysis highlights two key lessons drawn from the collapse of Michel Barnier's government in France and political instability in Germany: the infeasibility of Europe shouldering the full burden of rearmament without financial repercussions, and the unsustainability of excluding populist parties from political power.

The first major lesson concerns the unrealistic notion that Europe can independently re-arm and replace the U.S. as the primary supporter of Ukraine, all while maintaining existing levels of social security and healthcare. The article argues that this "idiocy" stems from the lack of sufficient financial resources to meet these demands. The second lesson is a warning about the failure of mainstream political establishments to include populist parties, which only leads to increased political paralysis and the potential for more frequent crises.

Both France and Germany have experienced severe political fragmentation, partly due to the fiscal pressure created by the costs of rearmament and Ukraine's support. In France, President Macron’s grand coalition strategy has failed, with Le Pen’s right-wing populist party gaining a strong foothold. This fragmentation culminated in the collapse of Barnier’s government. Similarly, in Germany, economic woes have caused the Social Democrats to enter an unstable coalition, with right-wing populism gaining traction in response to mainstream parties’ inability to address the country’s economic challenges.

The article also critiques the disconnect between Europe’s foreign policy elites and the reality on the ground. Figures like Elie Tenenbaum advocate for increased European military commitments to Ukraine without addressing the practical limitations of resources or public support for such an initiative. The author dismisses these proposals as unrealistic, suggesting a Russian retort: "when crabs learn to whistle," encapsulating the skepticism toward Europe’s military ambitions.

In summary, Responsible Statecraft presents a sobering analysis of Europe's internal political decay and its potential consequences for foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and European strategic autonomy. The article suggests that Europe’s ongoing crises are symptomatic of deeper structural issues that mainstream political parties and elites have failed to address effectively.