FT: Brussels tones down criticism of Orbán ahead of high-stakes Hungarian election

The European Commission is softening its public stance toward Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and may release fresh European Union funds to his government ahead of a closely watched national election that could end his long tenure in office.

Several people familiar with the matter told The FT, EU officials are seeking to avoid any actions that could be interpreted as interference in Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary vote. Officials are also wary of fueling Orbán’s long-running narrative that Brussels seeks to undermine his government.

Polls indicate Orbán, the EU’s longest-serving prime minister, faces a serious challenge from the opposition Tisza party, led by Péter Magyar. Surveys suggest Tisza holds a lead of around 10 percentage points over Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party. Sources said Tisza had also urged EU institutions to exercise restraint during the campaign period.

In a speech on February 15, Magyar promised to reinforce Hungary’s role within the European Union.

“Hungary’s place is in Europe, not only because we need Europe but also because Europe needs us,” he said.

The European Commission has reportedly adopted a more cautious tone in its communications regarding Hungary’s rule-of-law record. Approximately €2.4 billion in additional EU funds could be disbursed to Budapest before the election, despite ongoing concerns about governance and judicial independence.

“Months before such a historic, decisive election . . . they came to the conclusion that the best thing to do is not to do anything,” said a Hungarian official. “The Commission is hedging its bets, which is normal.”

An EU diplomat echoed that view, stating: “It’s wise that the Commission is not doing any massive announcements with the Hungarians in order to not risk being portrayed as interfering in the elections.”

Orbán has frequently clashed with Brussels over democratic standards and foreign policy. He has cultivated close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, opposed EU military aid to Ukraine, and resisted Kyiv’s bid for EU membership.

Throughout the campaign, Orbán and his allies have portrayed Magyar as aligned with Brussels. Government figures have accused the EU of attempting to influence Hungarian politics.

Earlier this month, the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), a think tank linked to Orbán, launched what it calls a “Democracy Interference Observatory” to “analyse how the European Union and EU-linked actors shape national elections across Europe.”

A European Parliament official acknowledged the political sensitivity of the situation. “Whatever the EU institutions will do will be used by Orbán . . . Whatever we say or do not say, it will be used against us,” the official said.

Orbán has also received support from allies of U.S. President Donald Trump. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is visiting Hungary in a show of support for the government. Hungary is set to host the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) next month, where Trump is expected to deliver remarks.

The Commission’s position has been further complicated by a recent legal opinion from the EU’s top court questioning a 2023 decision to release €10 billion in frozen funds to Hungary in order to secure Orbán’s approval of EU aid to Ukraine.

“Brussels is threatening Hungary through the European Court of Justice because we are not paying Ukraine,” Hungary’s EU minister János Bóka said in response. “The allies of the Tisza party are resorting to ever harsher measures to impose their will on Hungary and bring a Brussels puppet government to power.”

Despite the potential new disbursement, roughly €17 billion in EU funds allocated to Hungary remain frozen due to concerns over discrimination and judicial independence. The European Commission has also opened an investigation into allegations that Hungarian authorities sought to recruit EU officials as spies.

A Commission spokesperson said the institution was “actively looking into these [spying] allegations” and assessing rule-of-law developments in Hungary. “We have continued normally with our work, particularly as regards our enforcement action,” the spokesperson said.

It was “simply incorrect” that initiatives were being paused because of the election, the spokesperson added, stating that timing was “determined exclusively by the necessary analytical and procedural work.”

Earlier this month, Orbán issued a decree instructing courts to drop certain lawsuits against the government, prompting concerns about judicial independence. The Commission said it was monitoring the move. “We are following developments closely, and we are now analysing the decree in question,” the spokesperson said.

The April 12 election is widely seen as a pivotal moment for Hungary’s future direction within the European Union and for Orbán’s political legacy after more than a decade in power.

By Sabina Mammadli