IMF forecasts Azerbaijan’s nominal GDP to surpass $78 billion in 2025

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Azerbaijan’s nominal gross domestic product is projected to exceed 134 billion manats (approximately $78.87 billion) in 2025, with the country’s real economic growth forecast at 3.5%.

Thus, Azerbaijan’s nominal GDP is expected to reach 139.18 billion manats ($81.87 billion) in 2026 with 2.5% real growth, followed by 145.85 billion manats ($85.79 billion) in 2027 with 2.4% growth, Caliber.Az reports per local media.

The upward trajectory is forecast to continue through 2028 and 2029, hitting 153.56 billion manats ($90.33 billion) and 162.14 billion manats ($95.37 billion), respectively — both years anticipating real growth rates of 2.4% and 2.5%.

The IMF also projects steady growth in Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector. Nominal non-oil GDP is estimated at 94.67 billion manats (approximately $55.7 billion) in 2025 — a year-on-year increase of 10.46%. It is then set to grow by 8.37% to 102.60 billion manats (around $60.4 billion) in 2026, 7.64% to 110.43 billion manats ($65 billion) in 2027, 7.6% to 118.83 billion manats ($70 billion) in 2028, and another 7.64% to reach 127.90 billion manats ($75.3 billion) in 2029.

The Azerbaijani government has forecasted GDP at 129.2 billion manats (roughly $76 billion) for the current year, expecting 3.5% real growth. In 2024, the national economy grew by 4.1%, reaching 126.3 billion manats ($74.3 billion), while non-oil GDP expanded by 6.2%.

However, growth momentum slowed in early 2025: in January–February, the economy expanded by just 0.2%, although the non-oil sector still managed to grow by 1.7%.

By Aghakazim Guliyev