Iran expedites deportations amid economic strain from Afghan refugee influx

Since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, more than 2 million Afghan refugees have entered neighbouring Iran, joining millions who had fled decades of war and instability in earlier waves. Now, Iran is pushing to send them back. Facing a deepening economic crisis and growing public dissatisfaction, Tehran has launched a large-scale deportation campaign, mirroring efforts by neighbouring Pakistan, which has also expelled hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees in recent years.

Between March 2024 and March 2025, Iran reports to have deported over 1.2 million Afghans. According to an article by Financial Times, Iranian authorities say that these deportations are being coordinated with the Taliban government to ensure the process is gradual and, in their words, “dignified.” Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that Iran wants to avoid turning the repatriation into a social crisis for either country and is calling for a regional strategy to manage the situation.

Despite Iran’s official emphasis on coordination, the deportation campaign adds tension to the already fragile relationship between the two countries. Iran has not formally recognized the Taliban regime, and the two sides have clashed repeatedly over long-standing issues such as water rights. Recent efforts by Iran to fortify its borders—including the rapid construction of physical barriers—highlight Tehran’s concerns about security and border control.

Iran’s leaders argue that the country has long carried a disproportionate burden in sheltering Afghan refugees. The UNHCR estimated that around 3.8 million forcibly displaced people of various statuses were living in Iran in 2024, making it the largest refugee-hosting nation in the world. However, Iranian officials say the actual number is much higher—over 6 million—many of whom were born in Iran but still lack citizenship or legal status.

Burden on already frail Iranian institutions

The economic toll of this large refugee population has become a growing concern. Annual inflation in Iran has remained above 30% since 2020, and the local currency, the rial, has steadily devalued, increasing the cost of living for ordinary Iranians. As economic pressures mount, the presence of Afghan refugees—often perceived as competitors for jobs, housing, and public services—has become a politically sensitive issue.

According to Iranian officials cited in the article, about 600,000 Afghan children are enrolled in Iranian schools, placing further strain on the national education system. Saeid Iravani, Iran’s ambassador to the UN, stated that the country is spending $10 billion annually on Afghan refugees and has received insufficient support from the international community to shoulder this burden.

The refugee issue is also laced with sectarian and security concerns. Iran’s Shia-majority government has expressed alarm over the possibility of infiltration by Sunni extremists. Officials have cited Afghan members of terrorist groups like ISIS as potential security threats. As the article recalls, one bombing in southern Iran last year, attributed to ISIS, killed nearly 100 people and has been used by authorities to justify tighter immigration controls and surveillance.

Internally, the deportation push has been paired with crackdowns on informal Afghan settlements around major cities like Tehran, Karaj, and Mashhad. Police have intensified operations in these areas, targeting undocumented workers and migrants in what officials describe as efforts to restore order and relieve pressure on urban infrastructure.

By Nazrin Sadigova