Iran in its most vulnerable position since 1979, US intel tells Trump

President Trump has received several US intelligence briefings indicating that Iran’s leadership is in a significantly weakened position, people familiar with the assessments told US media.

The intelligence reports suggest that the Iranian government’s grip on power is at its most fragile point since the overthrow of the Shah during the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

According to the assessments, protests that broke out late last year rattled key elements of the Iranian leadership, particularly as demonstrations spread into regions officials had long viewed as strongholds of support for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Although the protests have since subsided, intelligence officials continue to describe the government as being under serious strain. In addition to political unrest, Iran’s economy is in one of its weakest states in modern history, the reports said.

Economic hardship initially sparked scattered protests in late December. As demonstrations expanded in January, Iranian authorities struggled to find ways to relieve the financial pressure facing households. The government ultimately responded with a forceful crackdown, a move that further alienated large segments of the population.

At the same time, the US military has been steadily reinforcing its presence in the region, though it remains unclear what actions the Trump administration may be preparing.

“President Trump is consistently briefed on intelligence matters around the world,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “It would be a dereliction of duty as commander in chief if he were not regularly briefed on these matters. With respect to Iran, President Trump continues to closely monitor the situation.”

Trump had earlier warned that he could carry out strikes against Iran as the government intensified its violent response to the protests. However, advisers within his administration have been divided over the value of military action, especially if any strikes were limited and largely symbolic, targeting government entities tied to the crackdown.

The president later appeared to ease off immediate plans for an attack after Iranian authorities halted the planned execution of a protester. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had also urged Trump to delay any strike on Iran, according to a senior US official.

Nevertheless, some of Trump’s most hardline advisers and allies have reportedly been pushing for a broader campaign, viewing the unrest as an opportunity to weaken or even remove Iran’s leadership. Trump has continued to signal the possibility of military action, referring to the growing naval presence in the region as an “armada.”

Trump has also publicly raised concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, issuing warnings and reminding Iranian officials of strikes he ordered last year on heavily fortified research facilities.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said he had recently spoken with Trump about Iran and expected the president to follow through on his pledge to support Iranians protesting their government.

“The goal is to end the regime,” Graham said in a brief interview. “They may stop killing them today, but if they’re in charge next month, they’ll kill them then.”

According to a US official, as of Monday, January 26, the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, accompanied by three warships armed with Tomahawk missiles, entered the area of responsibility of US Central Command in the western Indian Ocean.

Military officials said that if the White House ordered a strike on Iran, the carrier group could theoretically begin operations within one or two days.

The United States has already deployed roughly a dozen additional F-15E strike aircraft to the region to bolster its offensive capabilities, US officials said. The Pentagon has also sent more Patriot and THAAD air defence systems to help shield American forces from potential retaliatory attacks by Iranian short- and medium-range missiles.

Long-range bombers based in the United States remain on heightened alert, a status that was raised two weeks ago after Trump requested military options in response to Iran’s crackdown on protesters.

Pentagon officials have also intensified consultations with allies across the region. Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of US Central Command, travelled over the weekend to Syria, Iraq, and Israel to meet with US military personnel and regional counterparts.

A senior US military official said the primary purpose of Cooper’s trip was to visit American troops and detention facilities in northeastern Syria. The US military began transferring Islamic State prisoners from northeastern Syria to Iraq last week, amid growing fears that thousands of former fighters and their family members could escape as Syrian government forces regain control of territory previously held by Kurdish-led groups.

US officials have also conveyed warnings to Iraqi leaders, saying that if tensions with Iran escalate and Shiite militias in Iraq attack US bases or personnel, the United States would respond with retaliatory strikes.

Beyond Iraq and Israel, Trump administration officials have been holding discussions with Saudi and Qatari counterparts as part of broader regional consultations on Iran, according to a US official.

By Tamilla Hasanova