ISW: Putin's Christmas ceasefire announcement likely campaign to damage Ukraine's reputation

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement that Russian forces will conduct a 36-hour ceasefire along the entire front line in Ukraine is likely an information operation intended to damage Ukraine's reputation, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest report.

Putin ordered Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to implement a temporary ceasefire along the entire front line in Ukraine from midday on January 6 to midnight on January 7.

Considering that Putin "cannot reasonably expect Ukraine to meet the terms of this suddenly declared ceasefire, (he) may have called for the ceasefire to frame Ukraine as unaccommodating and unwilling to take the necessary steps towards negotiations," the ISW wrote.

Ceasefires also take time to organize and implement, and if Putin were serious about the January 6-7 ceasefire, it would not have been announced 24 hours in advance, according to the ISW.

Earlier on Jan. 5, Patriarch Kirill, leader of the Russian Orthodox Church and a fervent supporter of Russia's war in Ukraine, had called for a "Christmas Truce" inspired by the famous ceasefire on the Western Front on Dec. 24, 1914, so that Orthodox Christian soldiers on both sides "could visit church services on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day."

Putin’s announcement was ostensibly a response to Patriarch Kirill's statement, the ISW wrote in its assessment.

Both Ukrainian and Western officials, including U.S. President Joe Biden, immediately called out the hypocrisy of the ceasefire announcement, stressing that Russia had conducted attacks across Ukraine at military and civilian infrastructure on Dec. 25--when many Ukrainians celebrate Christmas--and New Year's, the ISW said.

On New Year's Eve, Russia attacked Ukraine with missiles, followed by an attack with 45 drones minutes after New Year's, killing one and injuring 28 civilians around the country, including three children.

The pro-war Russian military bloggers responded to the ceasefire announcement with vitriolic discontent.

Key Takeaways:

- Putin’s framing of the ceasefire on religious ground reinforces another Russian information operation that falsely frames Ukraine as suppressing religious groups and positions Putin as the true protector of the Christian faith.

- Putin has not changed his fundamental maximalist objectives in Ukraine.

- Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that prisoners who volunteered with the Wagner Group in Ukraine received pardons, likely in a bid to inflate his influence and political power, strengthen Wagner Group’s prisoner recruitment, and reassure Wagner Group criminals in uniform.

- Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line, and Russian forces claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the area.

- Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a successful counterattack as Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.

- Russian forces continued to operate sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the Dnipro River and reinforce positions in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.

- Russian military bloggers claimed recent Russian successes in Zaporizhia Oblast, likely to distract from the slow Russian offensive around Bakhmut that may be culminating.

- Mobilized Russian servicemembers likely continue to represent an outsized portion of Russian military casualties in Ukraine.