ISW: Russia trying to deter Ukraine's expected counteroffensive by bombing Kyiv

Increased Russian missile and drone attacks on Kyiv suggest that with its air campaign, Russia is trying to contain an expected counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Defence Forces.

Russia launched another series of strikes against Ukraine with Iranian-made cruise missiles and drones on the night of May 28 and 29 and on the afternoon of May 29, Caliber.Az reports, citing a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian forces launched 40 Kh-101/Kh-555 air-based cruise missiles and 38 Shahed-131/136 drones on the night of May 28 to 29 and 11 Iskander-M/K missiles during the day on May 29.

It also said Ukrainian air defences destroyed all 36 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 30 Shahed drones, and all 11 Iskander missiles.

Moreover, Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces intercepted all 11 Iskander missiles, and 40 cruise missiles and the Iranian-made Shahed drones that targeted Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast.

As unnamed Ukrainian sources stated, Ukrainian forces also intercepted missiles and drones near the cities of Lviv, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. They added that Russian forces struck port infrastructure in Odesa City and a military infrastructure facility in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

Russian forces launched a relatively higher number of missiles than in recent series of strikes following the largest Russian series of Shahed strikes since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on May 28.

ISW previously assessed that Russian forces began a new limited air campaign in recent months to degrade Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities, but that the Russian prioritization of targeting Kyiv is likely further limiting the campaign’s ability to meaningfully constrain potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.

Key Takeaways

•    Russian forces conducted another series of strikes against Ukraine with cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones overnight on May 28 to 29 and during the day on May 29.

•    Russia deployed more S-400 air defence systems (probably at least a battery) to Belarus on May 28.

•    Former Russian Deputy Minister of Defence for Logistics Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev confirmed that he is now operating as deputy commander of the Wagner Group.

•    Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied former Russian officer Igor Girkin’s May 27 accusation that Prigozhin could stage a military coup against the Kremlin by arguing that Wagner lacks the personnel needed to start a coup.

•    Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning denied a Wall Street Journal report that Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates.

•    Russian authorities continue to forcefully integrate dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP) in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast into the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) demonstrating the integral connection of the ROC with the Russian state.

•    Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

•    The tempo of Russian offensive operations in and around Bakhmut remains notably low.

•    Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front, particularly focusing on Marinka.

•    Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast and are expanding fortifications in Mariupol.

•    Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled limited Ukrainian reconnaissance in-force operations in Zaporizhya Oblast.

•    The Russian military command appears to be introducing doctrinal organization to some of its irregular formations.

•    Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on May 29 that will further strengthen the martial law regime in occupied areas of Ukraine.

•    Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely not hospitalized as of May 29.

Attack on Kyiv

On the night of May 29 to 30, as well as on May 29 night and later in the afternoon, an air alert was announced in Kyiv and part of the regions of Ukraine, air defence was working in the regions. So far, this has already become the 17th attack on the capital of Ukraine since the beginning of May.