Media: Could European peacekeepers help secure ceasefire in Ukraine conflict?

The question of European military involvement in Ukraine remains unresolved, despite ongoing discussions. While it is well-known that western special forces are present in Ukraine as “sneakers on the ground,” there has yet to be a large-scale deployment of European troops. However, this may be changing as new circumstances unfold.

The prospect of a European force in Ukraine gained attention following Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House, reigniting the idea first proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Initially dismissed as impractical, the situation has shifted. Ukraine’s military has faced difficulties, NATO membership has seemed less likely, and Trump has expressed a desire for a ceasefire “as soon as possible.” Kyiv has indicated a willingness to negotiate, provided it receives strong security guarantees from its allies. Consequently, talks have resumed about the possibility of European troops playing a key role in maintaining a ceasefire brokered by Trump with Russia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested that, to effectively deter Russia, a minimum of 200,000 troops would be necessary.

However, this figure is deemed unrealistic, far exceeding the number of troops involved in the D-Day landings. Ukrainian officials estimate that between 40,000 and 50,000 foreign troops could feasibly serve as a security force along the 1,000 km frontline. European leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, are set to discuss the matter further during an EU retreat in February.

So far, the Baltic states have shown support for the idea, though Poland opposes it, insisting that it should not be NATO’s border states with Russia that send troops into Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has firmly rejected sending German troops, while his likely successor, Friedrich Merz, supports Ukraine but has not committed to deploying troops.

The proposed mission aims to reassure Ukraine of Western support, deter Russian aggression, and demonstrate Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s security. As Zelenskyy stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos, if Europe fails to act decisively, the continent risks sliding into irrelevance. For cash-strapped European countries, troop deployment might be a more viable alternative to continuing financial aid to Ukraine.

Though a European-led peacekeeping mission could be formed, it would likely avoid direct combat. The model may resemble NATO’s Kosovo force (KFOR) or South Korea’s US military presence. Yet, sending troops would require a peace deal with Russia, a prospect that remains uncertain. As Sir Keir Starmer noted during a visit to Kyiv: “This isn’t just about Ukraine’s sovereignty. If Russia succeeds in its aggression, it will affect us all for a very long time.”

By Vafa Guliyeva