Media: Oreshnik missile’s debut in Dnipro raises alarm over nuclear escalation

The recent missile strike on a weapons factory in Dnipro, Ukraine, has raised concerns and sparked debates about the strategic implications of Russia’s new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik.

The attack, which took place last week, has drawn attention to the missile’s capabilities and its potential ramifications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as well as for NATO states in Europe, Caliber.Az reports via The New York Times.

Russian President Vladimir Putin hailed the Oreshnik missile as a symbol of Russia’s technological prowess, claiming it demonstrated the effectiveness of the country’s domestic military industry, unaffected by Western sanctions. Experts, however, note that the missile shares many features with other Russian missile systems, including the RS-26 Rubezh, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that has been tested since 2011.

The Oreshnik is notable for its ability to carry nuclear warheads, which comes at a time when Moscow has been increasingly threatening nuclear warfare. While it remains unclear whether the missile delivered nuclear or conventional explosives during the attack on Dnipro, the Pentagon has identified it as a modified version of the RS-26 Rubezh missile. Timothy Wright, a Russian missile expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, suggested that the name “Oreshnik,” meaning “hazelnut tree,” could refer to the missile's submunitions, which resemble clusters of hazelnuts.

“This system has been in development for a while,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies. Despite some physical differences, such as a smaller circumference compared to the Rubezh missile, experts believe the Oreshnik is designed for shorter-range operations. The Oreshnik has a range of approximately 3,410 miles, enough to target much of Europe, while the Rubezh, with its global reach, is capable of striking targets anywhere on Earth.

Nick Brown, an analyst at the British defence intelligence firm Janes, noted that while the Oreshnik has a shorter range than the Rubezh, it remains the longest-range weapon ever used in combat in Europe. Ukrainian officials reported that the Oreshnik missile strike in Dnipro carried six warheads, each containing six submunitions. They also suggested that Russia might have stockpiled up to 10 Oreshnik missiles.

Experts have pointed out that submunitions on ballistic missiles are relatively rare. Wright explained, “You don’t reinvent the wheel every time you make a new missile,” highlighting the shared technology between Russia’s various missile systems. Despite the Oreshnik’s use of submunitions, the attack on Dnipro caused damage to civilian infrastructure but did not result in any fatalities, according to Ukrainian officials.

Jeffrey Lewis assessed that the weapons factory likely suffered limited damage, noting that satellite images showed no large explosions, just holes in the roofs. “It’ll inconvenience them, and probably put the factory out of operations for a few days,” he said.

Ballistic missiles, including the Oreshnik, are challenging for air defence systems to intercept due to their high-speed descent after being propelled into the atmosphere. Ukraine lacks systems like the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) or Israel’s Arrow 3, which could potentially intercept the Oreshnik while it is above the atmosphere. According to Wright and Lewis, the missile warheads likely contained minimal or no explosives, with the blast damage instead being caused by the speed of the missile itself.

Tom Karako, director of the missile defence project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated, “Frankly, when you’re coming in at those speeds, inert warheads cause a heck of a lot of damage.” However, Wright cautioned that it remains difficult to assess the full extent of the damage without clearer images from the crash site.

Beyond its immediate battlefield impact, experts believe the missile strike is part of Russia’s broader strategy to intensify fears of nuclear escalation. Following the strike, the Biden administration granted Ukraine permission to use ATACMS deep-strike missiles, leading to a sharp reaction from Putin. Russia’s Oreshnik launch on November 21, 2024, came just two days after Ukraine used the ATACMS to strike targets within Russia.

“The Oreshnik is not about the battlefield significance — it’s about saber rattling,” Karako said. Yet, Lewis argued that the missile’s military capabilities are real and could potentially disrupt Ukrainian operations. “I don’t think they did this just to make a point,” he said.

Moscow had notified the United States about the missile launch, as per a 1988 agreement that requires missile tests to be communicated in advance. Wright emphasized the significance of this notification, noting that without it, the US would have been alarmed by the missile’s launch.

Despite the missile’s limited direct impact on the battlefield, the Oreshnik underscores the continued risk of escalation in the conflict, with the nuclear shadow looming over Ukraine and Europe.

By Aghakazim Guliyev