Media: Türkiye emerges as key ally in reshaping European security

Diplomats and analysts, as noted by Reuters, see Türkiye as a key partner in reshaping European security, as Europe strengthens its defences and seeks guarantees for Ukraine amid US-led calls for a ceasefire deal.

Thus, European nations have been unsettled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine, which has disrupted Washington's foreign policy, potentially ended Russia’s isolation, and placed pressure on Kyiv following troubled talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Caliber.Az reports.

This has also strained transatlantic relations. Experts argue that Europe's push to maintain Ukraine’s military strength while securing its own defences, without relying on the U.S., has opened up an unexpected opportunity for Türkiye to enhance ties with Europe, despite ongoing disputes over the rule of law, maritime issues with Greece and Cyprus, and Ankara's stalled bid for European Union membership.

"European countries that thought they had the luxury of excluding Türkiye until today are now seeing that they cannot exclude Türkiye anymore," said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM).

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, following talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on Wednesday, said he had presented a "clear proposal for Türkiye to take on the greatest possible co-responsibility" for peace in Ukraine and regional stability.

A senior European diplomat emphasised that Türkiye holds "very important views" on the necessary steps for achieving peace in Ukraine. According to the diplomat, President Erdoğan has effectively balanced his relationships with both Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin throughout the conflict, making it logical to involve him in discussions.

As a NATO member, Türkiye boasts the alliance’s second-largest army. In recent years, Türkiye has developed its own military assets, including jets, tanks, and naval carriers, and is a global supplier of armed drones, including to Ukraine. The country’s defence industry exports reached $7.1 billion in 2024.

In the wake of Trump's return to office in January, several European nations have explored the idea of forming a "coalition of the willing" to support Ukraine. France has even considered extending its nuclear umbrella to allies.

Both Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have stressed that Europe must involve Türkiye in restructuring its security architecture in a “sustainable and deterrent” way. A Turkish official, speaking anonymously, indicated that while there are no concrete plans yet for a new European security framework, certain steps could pave the way for closer cooperation.

“Instead of including Türkiye in projects in an ‘à la carte’ way, it would be more logical (for Europe) to seek partnerships in a more holistic way. For example, they can start by including Türkiye in the European Peace Facility programme,” the official told Reuters, referring to an EU initiative designed to support Ukraine.

A Turkish Defence Ministry official highlighted that Türkiye and Europe share numerous interests, from counter-terrorism to migration, and stressed that Türkiye’s full participation in EU defence initiatives is essential for Europe to assert itself as a global player. Türkiye is ready to contribute to the formation of a new security framework, the official added.

However, analysts point out that Türkiye’s stance towards Russia remains a crucial test. Ankara’s refusal to impose sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine and the continued strong ties between the two countries in energy, tourism, and trade complicate matters.

“The fundamental question that will come before Türkiye is the issue of ties with Russia because the essence of Europe’s security framework starts by viewing Russia as a threat,” Ulgen explained, adding that Türkiye must take a firm stance on Russia to play a larger role in European security.

Türkiye has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine, providing military aid and advocating for its territorial integrity. The country hosted peace talks early in the war and offered to facilitate future negotiations while working to revive a Black Sea navigational safety agreement.

A source within Türkiye’s Defence Ministry revealed last week that Türkiye might consider contributing to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, should a ceasefire be established. Turkish Chief of General Staff Metin Gurak attended a meeting of European army chiefs in Paris this week, where he met with counterparts from the UK and France, who have also discussed deploying troops.

Another European diplomat stressed that it is essential for Türkiye to be involved in providing security guarantees for Ukraine.

“Erdoğan’s interests lie with us right now, especially as he no longer has that Russia dynamic in Syria,” the diplomat said, referring to Russia’s support of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Türkiye’s backing of opposition rebels for years. “So, in a way, the stars are aligned for them to play a role within the future European guarantees for Ukraine.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev