Moody's forecasts 4% real GDP growth for Azerbaijan in 2025

Moody’s international rating agency forecasts that Azerbaijan's real GDP growth will be around 4 per cent in 2025.

The Azerbaijani economy is growing faster than expected. In 2024, GDP rose by 4.1 per cent year-on-year, compared to just 1.1 per cent in 2023, Caliber.Az reports via local media.

Moody’s highlights that the non-oil sector remains the main driver of growth, increasing by 6.2 per cent in 2024. Despite the decline in hydrocarbon prices and exceeding planned budget expenditures, the consolidated budget surplus in 2024 was 4 per cent of GDP, although significantly lower than the 8.2 per cent surplus in 2023.

Moody’s forecasts that the government budget deficit in 2024 will remain moderate, within 1-2 per cent of GDP: "This will help minimize the need for borrowing and keep the government debt level below 30 per cent of GDP."

This figure remains well below the average level for countries with similar credit ratings and other oil-producing countries such as Kazakhstan (Baa1, stable), which is a key factor in Azerbaijan’s creditworthiness.

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By Naila Huseynova