NATO plots historic military spending surge to meet Trump’s 5% demand

NATO allies are moving toward a landmark agreement to dramatically increase defence spending in response to pressure from US President Donald Trump, who has renewed his demand that members allocate 5% of their GDP to military and defence-related expenditures.

Diplomats familiar with the ongoing talks say negotiators are making steady progress on a plan that would see NATO members commit to reaching the 5% mark by 2032, Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

The initiative is expected to be a central topic during this week’s NATO foreign ministers meeting in Antalya, Türkiye, and will be formalised at the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague in late June.

The push comes as the Trump administration intensifies efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to a close, now in its fourth year. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has agreed to a possible in-person meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul on May 15, though the Kremlin has not confirmed Putin’s participation.

If adopted, the proposed 5% threshold would represent the largest coordinated military spending surge among Western allies since the end of the Cold War. Notably, not a single one of NATO’s 32 members — including the US — currently meets that level. As of NATO’s latest annual report in April, eight allies still had not even reached the longstanding 2% target.

To address this, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is leading a two-tier proposal: 3.5% of GDP for core defence expenditures, supplemented by an additional 1.5% for broader security-related areas such as military mobility, cybersecurity, and dual-use technologies. This combined approach aims to satisfy Trump’s demand while accommodating differing national capacities.

Speaking last month in Washington, Rutte said the priority for the Hague summit — Trump’s first NATO summit since returning to the presidency — is to rebalance defence contributions, given the disproportionate burden borne by the US compared to its European allies and Canada.

Diplomats say ministers in Antalya will debate what precisely qualifies under the additional 1.5% bracket, including whether existing spending can be counted or if new commitments are needed. Rutte’s plan includes stringent oversight and regular verification, a departure from NATO’s historically flexible spending goals.

Still, the scale of the proposed increase poses a formidable challenge. One senior European diplomat acknowledged that while the goal is daunting, the need to send a strong signal to Moscow has shifted the political calculus across the alliance.

Countries like Italy and Spain, which only recently hit the 2% mark, are now expected to meet the original threshold by June’s summit. The more ambitious 3.5% goal is built around a new generation of NATO defence plans and classified "capability targets" — detailed lists of weaponry and capabilities that member states have begun reviewing. These targets are set to be approved by defence ministers in Brussels next month, laying the groundwork for formal endorsement at the summit on June 24–25.

That meeting is expected to be shorter than previous summits, with a tight focus on defence spending and industrial ramp-up. According to European diplomats, Ukraine’s potential NATO membership will not be on the agenda. Trump’s continued opposition to Kyiv joining the alliance has sidelined the issue for now, and discussions on renewing NATO’s $40 billion aid pledge to Ukraine, agreed last year, have also stalled.

Another initiative under consideration, led by Rutte, aims to streamline NATO’s governance and boost internal efficiency. Diplomats suggest that this reform push could appeal to Trump, who has long criticised the alliance’s bureaucratic structure and spending practices.