Pakistan-India conflict: Azerbaijani expert highlights regional ramifications for South Caucasus

Political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Research Center, Farhad Mammadov, commented on the escalation of tensions between Pakistan and India and its impact on the South Caucasus in his Telegram channel.

"The escalation between India and Pakistan is gaining momentum, and everything is unfolding at an accelerated pace. The history of the conflict dates back to the formation of the modern states of India and Pakistan, so we won’t delve into the historical background..."

It is worth noting that the border between India and Pakistan is very long—around 3,000 km. The main tension lies in the north, where things are complicated by the interweaving of the territories of India, Pakistan, China, and a small portion of Afghanistan...

Additionally, the area where active hostilities could unfold is close to Pakistan’s capital, which makes it a significant factor for Pakistan in the context of the threat of nuclear weapons use…

Yes, both countries possess nuclear weapons, and this factor generates additional interest and concern…

The China factor... The northern part of Pakistan shares a border with China—over 500 km long. The transportation arteries between Pakistan and China are of strategic importance to Beijing; this segment of the Belt and Road Initiative provides a northern route and access to the ocean. China cannot and should not remain on the sidelines if a military conflict in the region threatens its strategic projects…

Rising India

In recent years, India has experienced growth in both economic and military spheres. The Indian diaspora abroad plays an active role in leading global states and multinational corporations. The fascist-leaning regime of Prime Minister Modi is consolidating power within the country, and for a rising power, war becomes a key element in its transition into the top tier of global states.

Pakistan, meanwhile, is going through political and economic crises. However, conflict with India serves to unite society. At the same time, Pakistan traditionally possesses a professional military, with ground forces being the dominant branch of its armed forces…

Where is the South Caucasus in this standoff?

In recent years, both India and Pakistan have developed strategic partnerships in our region. Pakistan has aligned itself with Azerbaijan, while India has intensified its engagement with Armenia. The military component plays a central role in both of these partnerships.

The spillover of the India-Pakistan confrontation into the South Caucasus remains minimal—Baku and Yerevan limit themselves to issuing statements of support for their respective strategic partners.

Impact on Azerbaijan

Here, another round of rivalry unfolds—this time between Azerbaijan’s ally Türkiye and its strategic partner Israel. Türkiye supports Pakistan, and military cooperation between Türkiye and Pakistan spans several decades. Turkish military advisors are already present in Islamabad.

Israel, meanwhile, is one of India’s key partners in the military-technical sphere. While the India-Pakistan war is not geographically close to either Türkiye or Israel—and therefore not existential for them—Ankara and Tel Aviv are unlikely to miss the opportunity to jab at each other in a different geographic arena.

In conclusion

"Regardless of how events unfold in the India-Pakistan standoff, it is crucial for Azerbaijan that Pakistan defends its positions, and ideally, achieves victory. The bloodiest wars of the 21st century should take place on the European continent and should not be repeated in Asia, especially in countries that are close to Azerbaijan," wrote Farhad Mammadov.

By Khagan Isayev