Peace prospects in South Caucasus: Can Aliyev’s US visit break deadlock with Armenia? Farhad Mammadov’s forecast

Farhad Mammadov, Director of the Centre for Studies of the South Caucasus (CSSC), shared his insights on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to the United States via his Telegram channel.

“Due to the time difference with the US, today will be extended by eight hours for Azerbaijan.

President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to the US will be historic, as it will lay the foundation for a new level of relations between Azerbaijan and the United States. It will also lead to decisions regarding the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, overcoming the point of no return in this process.

Because of the large amount of inaccurate information generated over recent days, I will attempt to systematise the facts.

Bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and the US

• Several months before the US elections, President Ilham Aliyev openly expressed that he shares the political and ideological views of Donald Trump. This was a bold statement at a time when the Democratic administration held full power in Washington. It is no coincidence that former President Trump recently shared Aliyev’s thoughts on his social media page… During Trump’s presidency, there was an exchange of letters and phone calls between the leaders, and Trump’s representative visited Baku. In today’s world, personal relationships between politicians play a key role!

• As a result of this visit, it is planned to create a Strategic Working Group to develop the Charter on Strategic Partnership. Priorities have been set in energy, trade, logistics, artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and, of course, security and defence. Note that there is no hint of the ideologically driven foreign policy of Biden and Blinken here…

• Of course, to implement this agenda, it is necessary to suspend the unjust 907th amendment, which was done under President Trump’s administration.

Azerbaijan has always supported pragmatic relations with the US, and now the time has come for pragmatism to prevail in the US as well. Once again, we witness an example from President Ilham Aliyev on how to ‘feel the time’!

The peace agenda between Azerbaijan and Armenia

During the meetings, a Joint Declaration is expected to be signed, reaffirming the peaceful nature of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The parties have also agreed to address the OSCE regarding the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and to ‘take further steps towards signing and ratifying the mentioned agreement’. This is a crucial element in the series of fair conditions set by Azerbaijan for the peace treaty.

It should be emphasised that all this will take place in the presence of the US President, a country that co-chairs the OSCE Minsk Group and wields influence over the overwhelming majority of OSCE members!

Alongside fulfilling Azerbaijan’s first condition, the foundation is also being laid for the second condition — the constitutional reform in Armenia, with the peace treaty ratification process tied to the results of a referendum. The initialled text of the treaty guarantees that the agreed articles will remain unchanged.

There will be a Zangezur corridor! This will be a special regime for a single communication route within the broader process of unlocking regional connections. It will be a sovereign decision by Armenia, made with the participation of the US. The unhindered access and international security guarantees that President Ilham Aliyev spoke about will be implemented within the Armenia-US agreement!

President Ilham Aliyev has formulated a peace agenda for the region and has been steadily working to realise it. The restoration of territorial integrity and sovereignty within international law, initiation of a peace treaty with Armenia, agreement on the treaty text, and a principled stance on unblocking communications…

All this happened despite obstacles both ‘on the ground’ and at the UN Security Council level. President Ilham Aliyev has demonstrated resilience and endurance, promoted Azerbaijan’s vision, sought to bring external proposals into a constructive framework, and when faced with pressure from Bidens, Blinkens, Macrons, and Borrels, simply ignored them, leaving their threats and blackmail hanging in the air.

Today, many issues related to the past are closing, and new issues concerning the future are opening!” — Mammadov wrote.

By Aghakazim Guliyev