POLITICO: "Steel porcupine" strategy reshaping Ukraine’s postwar security

Ukraine is increasingly convinced it cannot rely on external security guarantees alone in any future peace deal with Russia and must instead be prepared to defend itself as a heavily armed “steel porcupine” capable of deterring renewed aggression from Vladimir Putin, POLITICO reports.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last year urged Kyiv to transform itself into “a steel porcupine, indigestible for present and future aggressors.” For Ukraine, that vision now means maintaining a massive standing army, investing heavily in drones and missile technology, and building a resilient domestic defence industry.

“Ukraine has undergone a fundamental rethinking of what security guarantees mean and what they should be based on,” said Alyona Getmanchuk, head of Ukraine’s mission to NATO. “Previously, the vision was primarily centered on protection commitments provided by partners. Today, however, there is a clear understanding that the core of any security guarantees must be Ukraine’s army and its defence industries.”

The shift comes amid deep skepticism about Western reliability. US President Donald Trump has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, removing Kyiv’s preferred path to security under the alliance’s Article 5 collective defence clause. “In addition to strong armed forces, Ukraine needs robust security guarantees,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said during a visit to Kyiv, insisting such pledges were “solid.”

But Ukraine remains wary. Kyiv was burned by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, under which the US and UK offered assurances in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal—promises that failed to prevent Russia’s invasion. Trump’s abrupt policy shifts have further fueled doubts. “Would Trump go to war with Russia over Ukraine? Absolutely not,” wrote analyst Timothy Ash. “Would Trump sanction Russia for breaking any ceasefire? Very unlikely.”

With guarantees looking uncertain, Ukraine’s Plan B is self-reliance. “The longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians become convinced that they must rely first and foremost on themselves,” Getmanchuk said.

A key pillar of deterrence is manpower. Ukraine has insisted in peace talks on retaining a military of 800,000 soldiers, even as draft evasion and desertion pose serious challenges. Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has promised sweeping reforms, saying: “Our goal is to transform the system… eradicate lies and corruption, and foster a new culture of leadership and trust.”

Technology is equally central. Ukraine says Russian losses now reach about 35,000 troops per month, largely due to Ukrainian drones. In 2025 alone, Kyiv contracted 4.5 million FPV drones, spending more than 110 billion hryvnia (€2.1 billion). “But it is impossible to fight with new technologies while relying on an old organizational structure,” Fedorov said.

Despite having the capacity to produce $35 billion worth of weapons annually, Ukraine could fund only $12 billion in contracts last year. “Up to 60 percent of capacity remains underutilized,” said Ihor Fedirko of the Ukrainian Council of the Defence Industry.

For President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the conclusion is stark: “With such a neighbor, Ukrainians must be as effective masters of the defence of their state, so that Ukraine is always independent and free from Russia.”

By Vafa Guliyeva