Russian expert: Armenia has to rearm its troops

Russian military expert Valery Shiryaev has said that Armenia has to rethink the situation in its Armed Forces and rearm.

“Armenia, due to the loss in the war, is forced to think, reconsider in general the situation in its Armed Forces and rearm. This is the most important thing Armenia is obliged to do," Shiryaev said during an interview with Armenian media, Caliber.Az reports.

“This is where I have to get to the most difficult part. You see, the thing is, because there are two weapons systems in the world: the conventional Soviet-Russian system, which has existed in half the countries of the world for a long time, and the second system is the NATO system. They differ in calibres, radio frequency standards, and many other things. The Soviet-Russian ones are, of course, easier to maintain and cheaper. Also, they were designed to oppose each other, and are not interchangeable.  

So, there are, I would say, three army ecological systems for countries. Either the country is oriented towards one, or towards the second, or it organises a zoo. A zoo is when it does not matter who you buy what from, the most important thing is cheaper, more efficient, and then we will figure it out. The zoo is the worst thing that can happen, as the current conflict in Ukraine has shown. Because when NATO countries began to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a variety of weapons of various types and systems, then purely logistically it is a disaster. That is, there are a lot of problems with repair, with removal. For example, after 500 rounds, the gun barrels of some systems have to be replaced. They take them to Poznan, they can't do it locally.

A huge number of problems arise, seemingly in one NATO army. With 155 mm projectiles from different systems, which often do not fit together. That is, different companies of the same military bloc produce shells of seemingly the same calibre, which have such individual features that make them exclusive for use in the artillery systems that these companies produce. And the Ukrainians have faced this, they are coping with it and of course the strain is heavy, but it is an additional burden.

All the finances that result from this, maintenance, repairs, refurbishment, are fully covered by NATO countries as part of their financial assistance to Ukraine. That is, Ukraine is not paying for this zoo. Armenia will pay. If it buys various systems for itself. It is possible to rearm certain types of troops, certain systems, to replace 152 mm gun systems with 155 mm NATO systems, and to buy 155 mm shells on the market, they are available in principle, different countries produce them, but there is a question of price. Of course, 152mm shells are one and a half times cheaper, and that's for sure. However, if the NATO shells have better accuracy and range, then it's okay to go for it, but at the same time, we have to understand Armenia's interests very clearly.

So we have to proceed from a simple thing like the geographical position of Armenia. That is, from all sides, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, down in the south 35 kilometres of the border with Iran, which is in principle enough to carry some military cargo, but at the same time, it can be easily blocked. The 35 km corridor with Iran can be blocked by crossfire from both sides by any modern howitzer system, no problem. There is Georgia to the north, but whether it will want to participate in supplying Armenia with shells, I don't know. You just have to assume the worst. The most important thing for the Armenian army is not only the systems it buys, but the supply, where it will get these shells from, because it doesn't even have factories on its territory that produce these ammunition. Yes, if you hire commercial aircraft to transport them, you will have golden ammunition, I'm telling you that right away.

If you look at the world market, you will find quite a lot of offers and I have no confidence that the Armenian military-political leadership has conducted an in-depth study of the market, compiled mixing tables, held very serious meetings on this. This cannot be done quickly. Because you are laying down the structure of your army for years, for decades ahead. If you have changed the calibre, you cannot go back. And at this moment the Armenian leadership, for example, concludes an agreement with India that it will buy from it systems of purely Indian strange calibre 214-mm Pinaka. I am not, of course, clinging to the calibre. Basically a fairly modern idea, it is on the market for more than a million dollars, without an automatic control system, with a range of 40 kilometres.

In principle, for India, which has not very developed military-industrial complexes, this is a normal achievement in this particular part, the artillery part. However, for countries that have been doing this for a long time, there is nothing special here. And why it was given priority is unclear. Because you could have bought from Kazakhstan a full analogue of the Tonado-G system, which has the same parameters, 40 km range, with an automated control system, ballistic calculator, which has protection from shrapnel for a crew of two people, while the Indian system has five people. This is a simple example.

Why did Armenia take this step? There is no answer. I am not disputing anything, please, if you wish, you can open the tactical and technical characteristics of all multiple rocket launchers that are produced in different countries, and analyse their cost, combat qualities on your own. I doubt the effectiveness of the deal. Imagine a war starts, and no one is interested in price-quality on the front line, there is an existential threat there, either dead or not dead.

Therefore, when a real war breaks out, you will have all the missiles bought in India in a very short period, packet by packet, and there is nowhere else of this calibre. Where in time of hostilities Armenia will turn for additional ones, who will carry the supplies, Georgia will do it? And if you buy with calculation, India will be just happy about it. Well, give me at least one reason why Armenia needs it, when it can buy similar missiles of high quality, which, by the way, have a higher accuracy index than the Indian ones. Why India needs it is clear to me, why Armenia does not," the expert said.