Russian gas flows to Uzbekistan to surge amid production slump

Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Uzbekistan are expected to surpass 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2026 as the Central Asian country increasingly relies on imports to offset declining domestic production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced.

In its latest gas market report, the IEA said Russia is continuing to expand pipeline deliveries to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan through the Central Asia–Center pipeline system.

"Russia continues to increase pipeline gas supplies to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan through the Central Asia–Center pipeline system. Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Uzbekistan are expected to rise from 7 billion cubic metres in 2025 to just over 10 billion cubic metres in 2026," the report said.

The projected increase comes as Uzbekistan's domestic gas production continues to decline. According to the country's Statistics Agency, natural gas output totaled 15.8 bcm during the first five months of 2026, down from 18.4 bcm during the corresponding period a year earlier.

The production shortfall has driven a sharp increase in energy imports. Between January and May 2026, Uzbekistan spent $724.7 million on imports of natural and artificial gas, an 84.1% increase compared with the same period last year. Imports of liquefied gas also surged, with spending tripling to $68.2 million.

The expansion of Russian gas supplies follows a landmark agreement signed in the summer of 2023 between Uzbekistan and Russian energy giant Gazprom. Following the deal, Gazprom said its annual gas deliveries to Uzbekistan had reached 7.7 bcm.

Since then, the Russian company has continued to strengthen its presence in Central Asia. In 2024, Gazprom signed a separate agreement to supply natural gas to Kyrgyzstan and concluded a long-term transit arrangement with Kazakhstan to facilitate uninterrupted pipeline deliveries to both Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The transit agreements are scheduled to remain in force through 2040, providing the infrastructure framework for expanding Russian gas exports across the region.

By Vafa Guliyeva