Tehran set to exploit Armenia-Azerbaijan escalation Opinion by i24News

The website of the Israeli TV channel i24NEWS published an article by American journalist Ariel Kogan on the recent events that took place in the South Caucasus. The article suggests that Iran may exploit a new escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Iran has the capabilities and motive to turn any conflict with Azerbaijan into a proving ground of military developments which would be used against Israel

Russian aggression in Ukraine has been a proving ground for Iranian weapons manufacturers, but it is not enough for Tehran, which needs to test its drones against Israeli military technologies.

Last week, a routine patrol on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia led to a firefight between Armenian and Azerbaijani military personnel, which quickly devolved into a battle, with both sides rushing in heavier ordnance. Curiously enough, on the same day – just a few minutes before news of the border conflict had spread – the Iranian Revolutionary Guards-affiliated Telegram channel Sepah Pasdaran published death threats against Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. 

Moreover, Iranian drones took off at the same time in the northwestern part of the Islamic Republic, allegedly to conduct “reconnaissance missions near the border with Azerbaijan and Armenia,” as if expecting some incident to occur.

Yet, the Iranian military was not the only one to utilize Iranian-made drones. With the incident escalating rapidly, the Armenian side was quick to deploy its own arsenal of Iranian-made UAVs against their opponents, who, in part, operate Israeli-made weapons. 

Was this incident truly a simple escalation of border tensions, or was there another entity pulling the strings, with a lot to gain from a potential rematch between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

According to The Wall Street Journal, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander General Esmail Qaani met with the leaders of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Gaza’s Hamas in recent weeks to coordinate strikes against Israel.

The two terror organizations are known recipients of Iranian arms. However, with the latest flare-up between Armenia and Azerbaijan, there seemed to be another step in the preparations of Tehran to annihilate the Jewish state. 

Days after the border flare-up, the Iranian army released an official statement claiming that the countdown to Israel’s destruction has begun.

Following up on the IRGC’s modus operandi, two things must be ensured to destroy Israel: a readily available army of proxies to do the deed and one equipped with a steady supply of advanced and updated military equipment.

So far, the meetings between Qaani and the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah secured the proxy condition. However, Tehran is well aware that Israeli weapons and military technologies are highly advanced, and therefore, has been looking for a way to test and evaluate their capabilities without risking open conflict against Jerusalem.

Luckily for Iran, one of its neighbours has in its arsenal plenty of Israeli arms but does not pose the military threat that Israel does. The Mullah regime certainly has the motive and will to instigate conflict between their ally, Armenia, and their Israeli-aligned neighbour, Azerbaijan.

Reported Armenian usage of Iranian drones may prove valuable to Iran by allowing someone else to test its technology against the Israeli counterpart without the risk of Iranian casualties. It is certainly not far from the realm of possibility considering several reports throughout the previous months indicating that the IRGC has been transporting and smuggling militants and weaponry into the separatist enclave of Karabakh, populated by Armenians in the recognized territory of Azerbaijan.

Additionally, as part of the ceasefire agreement to end the 2020 Karabakh war, Armenia was to allow the construction of a corridor on its southern border with Iran, allowing Azerbaijan to bridge its exclave of Nakhchivan with the mainland. Naturally, Iran opposed the project vehemently and has been outspoken about the issue with a multitude of threats of military intervention on the side of Armenia if any progress toward such a corridor would be made.

Let it also be remembered that last month, two official IRGC Telegram channels posted direct threats of a military attack, indicating that the intentions of Baku – puppeteered by the “Zionist regime” – were “for a hostile action against Armenia.”  

Once again, this proves Iran has the capabilities and motive to instigate a conflict with Azerbaijan and to turn it into a proving ground for any new Iranian military developments which would be used to target Israel.

According to Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Iran is actively waging a war of attrition against Israel on all fronts. However, the Israeli military stands ready to act in all arenas to ensure the security of the Jewish state. In this tumultuous time, it is imperative to stand united against any foreign security threats and essential to stand by the countries we can call allies and friends, such as Azerbaijan, in its own struggle with Iran.