Turkish expert warns Armenia faces tough future amid economic, diplomatic struggles

A Turkish expert, Selenay Erva Yalcin, has warned that Armenia faces challenging times ahead due to its economic and diplomatic struggles.

The freezing of over 90 per cent of USAID aid to foreign countries, which includes a critical $20.6 million support package for Armenia, has raised serious concerns, said Yalcin, an analyst at Türkiye's Ankara-based Centre for Eurasian Studies (AVİM), Caliber.Az reports via local media.

According to Yalcin, the lack of economic ties with Azerbaijan and Türkiye has significantly hindered Armenia's development, compelling the country to rely heavily on foreign financial support. She pointed out that, for an extended period, the most substantial source of aid for Armenia has been various programs and funds from the United States, driven in part by the active Armenian Diaspora there.

Yalcin highlighted a recent appeal from the USAID office in Yerevan to its headquarters in the US, requesting the continuation of humanitarian assistance for Armenia. However, the analyst expressed skepticism, noting that the White House's critical stance toward USAID undermines the effectiveness of such appeals.

"The White House has made it clear that the policy of the current US administration towards Armenia will be different from what took place under Joe Biden," she stated.

The expert also drew attention to the growing crisis surrounding USAID's propaganda efforts globally, particularly with Radio Free Europe, which has long advocated for the ideas of the Armenian Diaspora. Yalcin warned that such media structures could cause significant harm to regional peace and hinder prospects for bilateral dialogue.

In addition, the Turkish analyst criticized the European Union's approach, suggesting that it prioritizes the interests of the Armenian Diaspora over regional stability and development. "As a result, EU assistance in the South Caucasus is mainly directed towards Armenia, including in the defence sector. Yerevan has been actively leveraging EU funding mechanisms for this purpose," Yalcin explained.

The analyst further emphasized that Armenia should heed the warning made by Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief, regarding the EU's inability to fully compensate for the suspension of USAID-funded projects with alternative grant programs.

Yalcin concluded by advising Armenia to reconsider its strategy, noting that the most sustainable source of economic development for the country would not come from Western aid but from improving relations with its neighboring states. However, she observed that Yerevan's initiatives in this direction have been delayed, suggesting that Armenia faces a difficult road ahead.

By Vafa Guliyeva