US moves in South Asia: Trump bets big on Pakistan, tensions rise with India Article by Al Jazeera

An article by the Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera examines the latest agreement between the United States and Pakistan, highlighting its potential geopolitical and economic implications. Caliber.Az presents its readers with the most insightful excerpts from the piece.

The United States has approved the sale of advanced technology and upgrades for Pakistan’s F-16 fighter planes worth approximately $686m.

The deal was struck amid simmering tensions between Pakistan and its neighbour, India. The US recently pressured Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to buy more weapons from it.

What has the US agreed with Pakistan?

Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based non-governmental organisation (NGO) International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that the latest approval is part of a 2022 maintenance deal the US agreed in 2022 to sustain Pakistan’s fleet of F-16s.

“The F-16 deal remains a key part of the broader US-Pakistan bilateral relationship, which is why there has been continuity from President Biden to President Trump, despite some delays. Both sides emphasise the fleet’s utility in joint counterterrorism operations in the region.”

The latest US deal is for the sale of technology, which will support and upgrade Pakistan’s existing F-16 fleet. It was confirmed in a report sent to the US Congress by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) on December 4.

Alongside $649m-worth of support and upgrades for the F-16s, the US sale also includes major defence equipment (MDE), which are items of significant military equipment on the US munitions list, worth $37m. This includes 92 Link-16 systems.

What role did F-16s play in the May conflict between India and Pakistan?

On April 22, armed attackers killed 26 people in Pahalgam, a popular tourist spot in Indian-administered Kashmir. The attack was claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a separatist group designated a terrorist organisation by India and the US, and which New Delhi alleges is linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) – a claim Islamabad denies.

Following the Pahalgam attack, New Delhi scaled back diplomatic ties with Islamabad and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which ensures the appropriate sharing of the Indus River water between India and Pakistan.

On May 7, India struck nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir with missiles, which Islamabad said killed dozens of civilians. Over the following three days, the countries engaged in a heated aerial war, using drones and missiles to target each other’s military bases.

During the aerial war, Pakistan deployed 42 “hi-tech aircraft”, including the F-16s, and Chinese-made JF-17s and J-10s, according to Pakistan’s Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed.

Is the US applying pressure to India?

Yes, for a couple of reasons. The US approval for Pakistan’s F-16 upgrade comes as the Trump administration presses India to buy more weapons from it.

In August, New Delhi put its plans to buy US weapons and aircraft on hold. This came just weeks before Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had been scheduled to visit Washington to announce some weapon purchases. That visit was cancelled.

India-US relations have also been tense in recent months. On August 6, Trump imposed an additional 25 percent tariff on imports from India as a punishment for buying cheap Russian crude oil. This was on top of the existing 25 percent tariff already levied on Indian goods, bringing the total levy on Indian imports to 50 percent.

While pressure from the US has resulted in India slightly scaling back purchases of Russian oil, New Delhi plans to continue to buy from Moscow. It remains the second-largest consumer of Russian oil after China.

President Vladimir Putin met Prime Minister Modi for the annual Russia-India bilateral summit in New Delhi last week, during which he said: “Russia is ready for uninterrupted shipments of fuel to India."

The announcement of the latest US deal to provide maintenance and upgrades for Pakistan’s F-16s is likely to be poorly received by India.

Donthi said New Delhi has previously opposed the defence cooperation between Pakistan and the US under which the two countries collaborate to maintain Pakistan’s F-16 fleet. India has claimed the F-16s are used against it.

“Washington pre-empted it this time by stating that the sale ‘will not alter the basic military balance in the region’,” Donthi said.

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst based in Washington, DC, told Al Jazeera: “I wouldn’t overstate the India angle here. Certainly one may look at this deal as the latest attempt by Washington to use its largesse to Pakistan as a pressure point to get India to make more concessions to the US in trade talks.”

However, he added that the deal is one that “has a logic of its own that’s not tied to India”.

How much does the US sale strengthen Pakistan?

Kugelman said the package is significant. “It is one of the more generous security aid packages to Pakistan in recent years. Nearly $700 million is nothing to sneeze at.”

The deal is also significant for US-Pakistan relations as it signifies the importance the Trump administration places on counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan.

“Critical minerals and other commercial opportunities have drawn the most headlines in discussions about the resurgence in US-Pakistan ties. But counterterrorism collaborations, while modest in scope, are important for this administration,” he said.

However, Donthi pointed out that while the latest package from the US will help Pakistan maintain its fleet until 2040, it is China which has supplied more than 80 per cent of Pakistan’s weapons since 2020.

This statistic is also backed by Swedish think tank SIPRI in a report this year.

“Pakistan used Chinese J-10 aircraft in the May conflict with India. Islamabad continues to balance between Washington and Beijing, benefiting from both,” Donthi said.