Armenia's population set to decline by 800,000 in next decade, says expert

Chairman of Armenia's Chamber of Auditors, economist Nairi Sargsyan has said that the population of Armenia could decrease by 800,000 over the next 10 years, dropping to 2.2 million. 

“If the current trends continue, there will be no Armenians left in the country in the next 25 years,” Sargsyan told Armenian media, Caliber.Az reports.

According to him, the main reasons are the low birth rate, emigration, and the aftermath of the 44-day war.

In particular, in 2023, 48,000 citizens left Armenia and did not return. After the start of the war in Ukraine, the number of citizens moving to Russia decreased, but queues for US green cards have formed. The head of the Audit Chamber does not rule out that by the end of the year, the number of people leaving the homeland could exceed the figure for 2023.

The average birth rate in Armenia has also changed. Officially, it remains within the range of 1.6–1.7 (with the replacement threshold being 2.1). However, the calculation has not been adjusted since the Karabakh war, amid numerous casualties and people who have become disabled.

"We assume that the rate has decreased and now fluctuates between 1.4 and 1.5," he said.

The situation is also critical with regards to unemployment. 1,150,000 people not only do not contribute to production but also require social care. Of these, 204,000 are unemployed, while another 960,000 are not participating in the workforce (including pensioners, children, and people with disabilities).

"About 560,000 people receive social benefits and pensions, while the number of registered workers is 760,000. This means that approximately 1.3 people are supporting not only themselves and their families but also paying for pensions or benefits through income tax contributions," said Sarkisian.

Regarding land and water resources, Sarkisian emphasised that over 60% of agricultural land in Armenia remains uncultivated and unused. Additionally, 70% of water resources are unmanaged, flowing out of Armenia as losses to Azerbaijan.

Sargsyan highlighted that all of this has led to a catastrophic situation in the country.

According to preliminary census data, the permanent population of Armenia is 2,928,914 people, but the on-site population is 2,638,917. The UN predicts a reduction in Armenia's population by 300,000 citizens by 2050.