Asharq Al-Awsat: Can Hezbollah afford new conflict with Israel?

Hezbollah has once again issued warnings that it may resume fighting against Israel amid the ongoing tensions between Tehran and Tel-Aviv, according to Arabic international newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat.

However, the Lebanese population remains cautious, fearing that Hezbollah could drag Lebanon into another war with Israel, this time in defence of its principal patron, Iran, Caliber.Az reports.

Following Hamas’s attack on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah launched a “support war” against Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian movement. Israel responded with a comprehensive military campaign in 2024, severely damaging Hezbollah’s weapons stockpile and eliminating key leaders.

Since a ceasefire came into effect in November, attempts have been made to disarm the group.

On June 16, Hezbollah’s deputy Chairman of the Political Council, Mahmoud Qamati, stated that the party was “prepared to fight the Israeli enemy should it despair in the Lebanese state’s ability to fulfill its vows and commitments in confronting the aggression.”

Ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Qamati’s statement was “a message, but whose direction we don’t know.”

“What matters now is that the party is still committing to the government’s decision to stay out of the conflict. Hezbollah had also declared that it will not launch a new support war,” the sources added.

Qamati further emphasised: “The resistance (Hezbollah) will not abandon its national duty if the state proves itself incapable or unwilling to deter the ongoing Israeli attacks. Hezbollah still believes the confrontation with Israel to be a national and sovereign issue.”

These remarks contrast with those made by Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah and other party sources. Last week, Fadlallah asserted: “Iran has proven throughout history that it can defend itself when attacked. It is not asking anyone to defend it. It is waging the fight itself, and it knows how to protect its people and how to wage a confrontation.”

“There are no such things as Iran’s proxies; rather, there are resistance movements,” he said.

Political analyst Dr Kassem Kassir, close to Hezbollah, told Asharq Al-Awsat that Qamati was referring to Israel’s occupation of Lebanese territories and the need to confront it, rather than signalling support for Iran.

“His remarks are in preparation for any scenario that may emerge,” Kassir said.

However, Imad Salamey, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the Lebanese American University, dismissed Hezbollah’s threat to renew fighting as “nothing more than a desperate attempt to make itself seem relevant, when in reality it is on the brink of total collapse.”

“Hezbollah has lost the overwhelming majority of its military capabilities: its weapons arsenal has been destroyed by Israeli strikes, its supply routes from Iran are no more, and its field commanders have been systematically assassinated,” Salamey told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He added that “in all likelihood, Iranian support “must have dropped dramatically as a result of internal and external pressure on Tehran, including the Israeli attacks, leaving Hezbollah in unprecedented isolation.”

“The fact is that Hezbollah can no longer pose a real threat to Israel. With its popular support waning, the party is likely resorting to internal threats, specifically within its Shiite fold, to suppress any attempt at defection or mutiny,” he explained.

“The threats we have been hearing are nothing more than a form of propaganda aimed at hiding Hezbollah’s reality and reshaping its image that cannot be backed up with any tangible support,” Salamey said.

Charles Jabbour, Head of Lebanese Forces Media and Communications Department, echoed these views, saying Qamati’s comments were “words aimed at compensating for Hezbollah’s inability to wage a support war for Iran.”

“Those who supported Hamas were better off supporting the side that established it and supplied it with funds and weapons,” he said, referring to Hezbollah’s main backer, Iran.

“All of these threats are aimed at Hezbollah’s supporters to give them the impression that they are still capable of fighting. The reality is that they can no longer do anything but hand over their weapons,” Jabbour told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Meanwhile, the Kataeb party praised Lebanon’s firm stance on neutrality in the regional conflict.

The party called on Hezbollah to take a “clear and immediate decision to meet calls to lay down its weapons and hand them over to the army and disengage itself completely from any foreign powers.”

“It must return to the fold of the state that remains the only protector of all Lebanese people,” the party added.

By Aghakazim Guliyev