Assad's sudden fall shocks US officials as Syria faces uncertain future

The fleeing of Bashar al-Assad from his position as President of Syria came as a surprise to many members of the US government, including those who have long advocated for his removal.

US officials remain uncertain whether the new powers in Syria will govern the country in a “humane or effective manner,” Caliber.Az reports via foreign media.

Bashar al-Assad, who has ruled Syria with an iron fist for 24 years, has seen his regime collapse dramatically in the face of a swift rebel advance. His departure marks the end of one of the most enduring and brutal dictatorships in the modern Middle East, a regime built upon decades of oppression and intransigence.

The swift downfall came as opposition forces closed in on Damascus, forcing Assad to flee to the airport in the dead of night on December 7, according to reports from residents of the capital. Russian state media later confirmed that he had been granted asylum in Moscow.

Assad’s retreat comes at a moment of regional isolation and military collapse. By the time his exit occurred, Assad had already lost key international allies, such as Russia and Iran, and his once loyal Alawite minority supporters were defecting or fleeing to their coastal heartlands. His failure to maintain a cohesive military or secure regional support underscores his longstanding miscalculations.

“He did not say a word of comfort to us, and we are disappointed,” lamented an Alawite woman in Latakia, voicing frustration over his silence in his final days in power. The absence of a public address highlighted the regime’s erosion and Assad’s unwillingness to offer reassurance, even to his staunchest supporters.

The collapse follows a devastating civil war that has disfigured Syria, killed hundreds of thousands, and left millions displaced. Analysts such as Amr al-Azm, a former Damascus University professor, attribute this failure to Assad’s refusal to enact reforms or resolve key issues through dialogue. “He had no answers and no solutions,” said al-Azm. “Just more of the same, the same intransigence, the same oppression.”

Assad’s missed opportunities became crucial in his eventual downfall. Despite repeated offers from the international community—including an indirect US proposal through the United Arab Emirates that could have lifted sanctions in return for severing ties with Iran—Assad remained firm in his resolve to retain total control. This refusal was a symbol of his strategic hubris, reflecting his unwillingness to compromise even when survival was at stake.

Throughout his tenure, Assad’s reliance on Iran’s military support and Russia’s airpower ensured his regime's survival during critical moments of the civil war. However, this dependency weakened his ability to secure broader alliances or economic recovery. The failure of numerous diplomatic efforts to disengage from Iran further isolated his regime. As a former Egyptian official noted anonymously, “We spent a lot of efforts, but he was in the arms of Iran.”

Assad’s inability to reconcile with the opposition, coupled with his refusal to engage in peace efforts or regional negotiations, proved fatal. His unyielding stance and arrogance became his ultimate undoing as his adversaries closed in. Analysts point to his intransigence as emblematic of deeper failures in leadership, with al-Azm stating bluntly, “He missed so many opportunities because of his stubbornness.”

Assad’s departure leaves Syria at a significant crossroads. His rule, one built on violence, fear, and repression, has now yielded to uncertainty. What comes next for the Syrian people remains uncertain as regional powers, including Russia, Türkiye, and Iran, adjust to the geopolitical shift that has accompanied his fall. Assad’s legacy is clear: a brutal rule that prioritized survival over reform, leaving Syria fractured and its citizens mired in suffering.

By Aghakazim Guliyev