Rome considers costly bet on next-generation air combat system

Italy’s parliament is set to decide in the coming weeks whether to commit major funding to the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a joint initiative with the United Kingdom and Japan to develop a sixth-generation air combat system by 2035.

According to the latest report by Euronews, the programme is a cornerstone of Italy’s medium- to long-term military planning and reflects an effort to gain greater technological and operational autonomy than in past projects such as the Eurofighter and the F-35, where key technologies and decision-making remained largely under the control of stronger partners, particularly the United States.

GCAP emerged from the merger of the UK’s Tempest programme and Japan’s FX project. It is designed as an integrated air combat system, combining a piloted fighter with advanced uncrewed systems and digital architectures, and is intended to gradually replace platforms such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and Japan’s Mitsubishi F-2. Interoperability with allied forces is a core requirement.

According to Italy’s Defence Multi-Year Planning Document, Rome’s contribution to GCAP is estimated at around €9 billion through 2035 for the development phase alone, excluding production and life-cycle costs. Funding for 2025 exceeds €600 million, placing GCAP among Italy’s most expensive military aviation programmes. Defence authorities have acknowledged that overall costs could rise over time.

GCAP aircraft are expected to operate alongside Italy’s existing fleet before gradually replacing it. Italy currently fields 118 Eurofighters and plans to acquire 115 F-35s, with more than 180 combat aircraft projected around 2040. The programme is also intended to reduce Italy’s gap in uncrewed combat air systems through the development of advanced auxiliary platforms.

Unlike the politically divisive F-35 programme, GCAP has so far enjoyed broader political support. A key attraction for Italy is equal access to technology and the absence of US-controlled “black boxes,” which previously limited Italy’s ability to independently maintain, upgrade, or modify systems. Italy holds a one-third share in GCAP, equal to that of the UK and Japan, significantly improving expected industrial returns.

Internationally, GCAP is developing in parallel with other next-generation efforts. The United States is pursuing its own programmes, while France, Germany, and Spain are advancing the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), which has faced delays and industrial tensions. FCAS entry into service is currently projected around 2040, roughly five years later than GCAP.

Analysts describe GCAP as both an unprecedented opportunity and a high-risk undertaking for Italy. The programme’s complexity, long timelines, reliance on sustained funding, and demands on secure information management and skilled human capital pose significant challenges. Any delays, funding disruptions, or regulatory uncertainty could undermine industrial benefits and weaken Italy’s ambition to achieve greater technological sovereignty through one of its most ambitious defence projects to date.

By Tamilla Hasanova