Dutch parliamentary elections underway amid tight race

Voting is underway in the Netherlands for parliamentary elections that polls suggest could once again see the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders’s Freedom Party (PVV) claim the most seats, though there is little likelihood it will participate in the next government.

The PVV, which shocked the nation by finishing first in the previous election and subsequently formed a four-party conservative coalition that collapsed after less than a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls, according to foreign media reports. It is forecast to win between 24 and 28 of the 150 parliamentary seats. However, the far-right party’s popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats, and all major parties have ruled out joining a government led by Wilders, who ended the outgoing coalition in June amid disputes over his radical anti-refugee proposals.

The election campaign has been dominated by debates over migration, rising healthcare costs, and the country’s acute housing crisis. The centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance (GL/PvdA), led by former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win 22 to 26 seats.

Other parties expected to perform well include the liberal-progressive D66, which could see its seat tally rise nearly fivefold to between 21 and 25, and the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA), projected to more than double their representation to 18–22 seats.

Meanwhile, members of the outgoing cabinet — comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) — are all forecast to lose seats, some significantly, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with a government beset by internal conflicts and limited achievements.

Under the Netherlands’ proportional electoral system, 0.67% of the vote translates into one parliamentary seat. With 27 parties contesting — including niche parties for the over-50s, youth, animals, universal basic income, and sport — up to 16 could enter parliament, reflecting a high degree of political fragmentation. No single party is likely to secure a majority, and Dutch governments have historically relied on multi-party coalitions, with the last three governments each composed of four parties.

Wilders has warned that “democracy will be dead” if the PVV finishes first but is excluded from government. Analysts, however, emphasise that securing the most votes does not guarantee power, and any coalition commanding a parliamentary majority is fully democratic.

Although the final outcome remains uncertain and coalition negotiations may take months, experts predict that following the most extreme government in recent Dutch history, the next cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Polling stations opened at 7:30 a.m. local time (6:30 a.m. GMT), including locations in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank House in Amsterdam, and will close at 9 p.m., with exit polls expected shortly thereafter.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential coalitions capable of commanding a parliamentary majority, after which the partners negotiate a government agreement for the next four years, which must then pass a confidence vote in parliament.

By Tamilla Hasanova