Expert warns of civil aviation risks after AZAL plane downed over war zone

The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) passenger plane on a Baku-Grozny flight, which was reportedly shot down by Russian air defence systems, highlights the dangers that armed conflicts pose to civil aviation, according to Nico Lange, a researcher at the Munich Security Conference.

“This is not just an aviation security incident; it is a case of a Russian air defence system shooting down a civilian airliner. The key issue here is Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine,” Lange stated in an interview with local media, as per Caliber.Az.

According to him, the only way to prevent similar tragedies in the future is to achieve lasting peace in the region.

“Unfortunately, European countries do not show enough determination in finding a solution to the conflict. I also have doubts that President Trump's possible initiatives will lead to meaningful results,” he added. “From an aviation security perspective, the main conclusion is that the war must end to eliminate the risk of civilian aircraft being mistaken for military targets. The confusion between drones, missiles, and passenger airliners in the war zone is a direct consequence of the ongoing conflict. Until it is resolved, the risks to civil aviation will remain,” Lange emphasized.

A preliminary report on the crash, released in early February, confirmed that the aircraft’s fuselage sustained damage from an external impact.

The report does not support theories of a collision with birds or an oxygen cylinder explosion. It notes that at 05:13:32, the aircraft’s main control systems failed, and at 05:21:42, the Grozny air traffic controller initiated the emergency response procedure known as “Carpet.”

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190AR, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on December 25, 2024, during an emergency landing attempt. The flight, which was en route from Baku to Grozny, carried 67 people, including 62 passengers and five crew members. The crash resulted in 38 fatalities, with 29 survivors, including three crew members.

Preliminary investigations indicate that the aircraft was downed by a Russian "Pantsir-S1" surface-to-air missile, fired in an attempt to repel a Ukrainian drone attack over Chechnya. Russian authorities initially downplayed the incident, but subsequent investigations confirmed that a missile strike was responsible. The findings also revealed that the aircraft’s navigation systems had been disrupted by electronic warfare, which severely hindered the crew’s ability to control the plane.

On January 24, Caliber.Az's new findings confirmed that both the individual who fired on the plane and the officer who issued the order have been identified. Additionally, the initial report of the plane being struck by the Russian Pantsir-S1 has been verified.

By Tamilla Hasanova