Foreign Affairs: US risks losing reliable allies in East Asia

The United States may lose trusted allies in East Asia, namely Japan and South Korea, due to uncertainty in Washington.

In an article published in Foreign Affairs, Robert Kelly, a political science professor at Pusan National University, and Paul Poast, an associate professor at the University of Chicago and senior nonresident fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, argued that Tokyo and Seoul can no longer ignore the potential consequences of the US failing to support them in a crisis, Caliber.Az reports.

“Instead, over the next decade, it is likely that U.S. allies will start to noticeably drift away,” the article stated.

The analysts noted that Japan and South Korea are already building alternative alliance structures, considering acquiring nuclear weapons, and even acting as intermediaries in “separate peace deals with, rather than confronting, regional opponents.”

“Despite their ongoing reliance on the United States in the short term, these allies will seek to protect themselves against American irresponsibility going forward. This includes both increasing domestic spending to make themselves more self-reliant in defence and infrastructure and pursuing a wider range of partners for fear that the United States will not help in a conflict,” the article read.

According to the article, in some ways, Trump is accelerating this shift, and although the United States claims it still wants and expects a robust network of allies—particularly in Europe and Asia—the strategy makes clear that Washington’s role should be as a “conveyor and supporter,” rather than the primary provider, of other countries’ security.

The post–World War II security system in East Asia was based on strong US alliances with Japan and South Korea. 

Over time, the stability of that system depended heavily on US credibility — its willingness to forward-deploy troops, guarantee defence commitments, and act as the backbone of regional security.

Rising security challenges — for example, the nuclear and missile threats posed by North Korea and growing assertiveness by China — have increased pressure on Japan and South Korea to reconsider whether reliance solely on the US remains sufficient.

At the same time, growing doubts about the consistency of US commitments — especially under a US administration perceived as more transactional and less multilateral — have eroded trust, prompting both countries to entertain deeper trilateral cooperation and even consider greater self-reliance for their own defence and deterrence.

By Jeyhun Aghazada