FT: Iran’s exiled royal calls for overthrow of regime But support remains limited

For decades in exile, Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last Shah, once seen as marginal, now believes escalating Israeli strikes signal a possible shift in the Islamic Republic’s long-standing political dominance.

“This is the first time in all these years that we see the playing field being more even for an opportunity for change,” Caliber.Az quotes Pahlavi as saying, per The Financial Times, urging Iranians to “rise up” and “reclaim Iran.” 

His calls echo those of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has also sought to encourage dissent within Iran. However, widespread popular uprising has yet to materialise, as many Iranians remain focused on survival amid the bombings and harbour growing anti-Israeli sentiments.

Vali Nasr, professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, highlights this complex mood: “There is going to be a reckoning for the Islamic republic; [citizens] want it gone, but they’re not happy being invaded, they don’t want their lives destroyed. They’re not interested in a call to arms against the regime right now — that’s not their issue.”

Despite repeated protests over the past two decades—including the 2009 “green movement” and the 2022 “Women, Life, Freedom” demonstrations sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death—the Iranian regime has consistently crushed dissent, detaining activists and suppressing opposition.

Pahlavi, who has not returned to Iran since 1978, positions himself as a “transitional leader” offering a secular, democratic alternative. Yet, many analysts remain sceptical.

Mohsen Milani, a University of South Florida professor, stresses the challenges facing the opposition: “To launch a revolution or achieve regime change without the deployment of US troops, you need charisma, you need an organisation, you need people willing to fight for you inside Iran. You need to popularise an acceptable vision for the future, and you must be able to form a broad, national coalition against the incumbent regime. I’ve seen very little evidence of that.”

Furthermore, Pahlavi’s perceived closeness to Israel risks alienating many Iranians who see him as a collaborator with the country’s aggressor. “The only traitor here is really Khamenei,” Pahlavi insists, but critics argue this association undermines his support within Iran.

The most organised opposition group, Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), is widely despised inside Iran due to its violent past and perceived foreign alliances, making it unlikely to gain popular backing.

Analysts agree that no clear alternative to the Islamic Republic exists internally or externally. Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an Iranian-American academic, points to potential defections within the regime, particularly among the Revolutionary Guards, as a possible catalyst for change. Yet, “As of this moment, we don’t really see any serious signs of that elite defection.”

With the regime’s military leadership weakened by Israeli strikes and the possibility of further assassinations looming, Nasr suggests Iran may experience a “Yeltsin” moment, where a figure emerges to restore order and rally bureaucratic support.

Still, many Iranians fear national fragmentation, wary of the chaos witnessed in Iraq, Syria, and Libya after regime collapses.

Milani concludes that Iran’s middle class remains cautious: “They have become much more reluctant to participate unless they are given a degree of assurance that what is going to replace the Islamic republic would be better than what we have today.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev