Georgia’s NATO path “unacceptable,” says UK analyst, citing Ukraine war lessons

British diplomat and security analyst Ian Proud has issued a stark warning regarding Georgia’s potential NATO membership, asserting that such a move would inevitably provoke a war with Russia—an outcome he described as unacceptable and detrimental to national interests.

“If you want to join NATO, war with Russia is guaranteed,” Proud said in an interview with Georgian media, Caliber.Az reports.

His comments reflect growing international concern over the geopolitical ramifications of NATO expansion into former Soviet territories, particularly in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Proud urged Georgia to closely examine Ukraine’s experience since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. He noted that while NATO has provided Kyiv with humanitarian aid and military supplies, it has stopped short of deploying troops, underscoring the alliance’s limits in direct confrontation scenarios. “Sanctions against Russia have not achieved their goal,” he added, alluding to the ineffectiveness of Western measures in deterring Russian aggression.

The diplomat’s remarks come amid rapidly deteriorating relations between Georgia and its Western partners. On June 4, Temo Sukashvili, a representative of Georgia’s Foreign Ministry, announced the impending closure of the NATO and EU Information Centre in Tbilisi, effective July 1. The closure signals a significant cooling in Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

Meanwhile, earlier this year, Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili claimed that external actors had attempted to push Georgia into conflict with Russia following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. He credited the Georgian people and government with resisting these provocations and defending the country’s sovereignty through restraint.

By Vafa Guliyeva